I know the forum name is "Where is IT going in the next 5 years" - BUT 19

[guestgulkan]

The IT, computer and software industry has always been over
optomistic - so I will say 25 years time (just as I'm retiring).
This is what I expect/would like to see:

1. The death of landline (copper and fibre optic) modem.
Wireless (mobile phone) to rule.
However, requires humongous increase in mobile bandwith - maybe to 1 GBit/sec. Possible?
saves all that nonsense with different modem connectors
for different countries, etc..

2. The harmonisation of OS's - The browser will be the thing.
The OS will become browser based.
Maybe they will be many types of PC, with different CPU types - but they will run a common specification browser interface API. No more *ix, windows, Mac OS specific programming!
Bootup to the browser.
Javascript and java will evolve to be the common programming
languages.

3. IP V6 - will it take over by then???????????

4. No more driver disks/CD's.
Memory will be so cheap - peripherals such as printers & scanners will come with the driver(s) already in them.
True plug & play.

5. CHEAPER SOFTWARE !!
No more distribution of software on CD's.
The applications are on the web. Only user specific files
are stored locally. Access/payment is all part of the ISP package.

 

[xutopia]

Mark,

You should go see (or rent) Bowling for Columbine! Gary

http://www.xutopia.com

Haran

 

[DrGreen26]

I would say VoIP will be playing a bigger role in some of these networks. Also note: More and more technologies are integrating IP in them. So in that sense of IP converging in the telecom market, I would say its already there and more being added each day. VoIP seems to be a key piece of that pie. PBX installs, few and far between for now, but server based PBX's will probably become more and more of a reality as opposed to traditional PBX's since server based PBX's are more cost effective and are also IP based which sets up VoIP solutions quite well.

For technoloigies: SONET, ATM, DWDM already have IP interfaces to tie into the trasnport side. That being said, I will watch this thread and add more later.
Mark C. Greenwood, CNE
m_jgreenwood@yahoo.com

With more than 10 years experience to share.

 

[jad]

IP is being installed into almost everything new we buy here ...

I work in an analytical lab, we finally got around to buying new equipment here from agilent (aka. HP) technology and all their latest machines talk directly onto our network.
It's a lot easier to get them to talk IP, because IP technology is cheap, you can use almost any network card, even the £10 variety, instead of the proprietary HP cards of old.
the cost of a "computer" to talk IP and have a couple of daemons running on it placed inside an instrument is negligable compared to almost any other part of the instrument.
Hell ... we also make instruments on site, and we're planning on going the same way, and we only have about 10 staff working on the creation of the thing

It's getting to the point were it is almost uneconomic to not got IP.

 

[ITR]

25 years.

- Microsoft will no longer sell operating systems, but will still be in business doing well.

- Businesses will be running linux servers with some sort of free citrix type app on it.

- Many business will source out their servers to internet based companies. The data could stay onsite on a plug-in-play SANS, but the apps will be served across the web via citrix.

- Applications will ahear to a new standards based output where they'll run on any operating system.

- IT will be a bad work to many. Programmers and network guys will be out of work except for a choice few willing to work for cheap.

- Redundancy and low prices will eliminate the need to fix a server, computer, or router when something goes wrong with it.

 

[Grenage]

Indeed like said above it would be sad if in 25 years we have implemented todays technologies and thats it.

I'd like to this one Company doesn't dominate the market but the chances are high it will do.

Some version of Operating system may be running on Servers and PC's if we still have them (maybe everything will be on a form of firmware for reliability) although I doubt it will be anything near the Linux or other OS's we have today.

Basically I assume that in 25 years time it will all be the same only bigger and better, with different methods gaining the same result. I believe efficiency is really going to come into play this century.

 

[jad]

if you want speed of processing, hardware is going to be the only option ... if you don't need to process the answers the response will be very fast ...

it might be we go back to having ROM's or EEPROM's in computers to get the system working at speed ...

they're talking about creating memory that stores even when the machine has no power ...
after a power cut your machine would just come straight back up without having lost anything, you would see a speed improvment in booting/startup/shutdown and power efficiency ...
but if you don't need to power the memory in order to save stuff in it, and it's cheap, hard disks will stop existing (except as long term removable storage) ... you can access it almost immediately without seek speed. no power drain because you only need power to read and write the memory, not constant ...

i'm blathering again

Jon

 

[DrGreen26]

Hmm in 25 years, ISP's will provide the network service, and everything will run on linux. Interesting thought, though this may sound like a corporations dream, it will be hard lived.

Here's what I think. Small mom and pop shops in the future, this would be a perfect fit for. Small corporations most likely as well. Large corporations or companies that have to do things for the government, I would say probably not.

If I have a fortune 500 company and my data is crucial to my businesses success, the last place I would want to put it is on some other companies server wher I have no control over it. Couple that with all the federal laws and regulations, and even health organizations will have to face the music of maintaining this on their own. I have to admit though, I do like your ideas. It would be a god sent if something like that could come to reality.

I think Novell is really pushing hard to make all their applications cross platform, so no Novell box will even be required in the future, which sets the pace to allow a true linux solution with apps that help drive the business. Linux in itself still has a way to go, I would like to see linux become more of a commercial type OS so that it becomes more secure, and that is speaking from todays point of view, it's still an OS that is highly targeted for hacking, and though strides are being made, it still lacking some of the luster it needs to shine in large corproate environments. But hey, it is free..can't complan there.

Linux everywhere.. Now that would be a site to see. I would actually think 2 scenarios would exist. One of them being Novell, which currently has a 64 BIt Unix platform that should be out in the very near future, the traditional Novell OS and Linix/Unix will be the for runners. I like to think outside the box, and to add, do you really think that the Fed would allow one platform to solely exist...probably not. In fact, I still see Bill Gate's empty promises of an OS still lingering around.

But any ways, cool post and we can all hope for a better and brighter future..

Me Mark C. Greenwood, CNE
m_jgreenwood@yahoo.com

With more than 10 years experience to share.

 

[xutopia]

I just felt like giving a few more stars today! lol

Everything I read on here despite disagreement with some points I still find interesting what others think! Gary

http://www.xutopia.com

Haran

 

[AIXSPadmin]

I think operating systems will evolve in 25 years and they won't be Unix or Windows like we know them today. In 1990, tell me what Windows looked like? It is totally different today and in only 10 years. Unix has already been around for 30 some years, but today's operating systems like I said, I don't think they will be around.

 

[DrGreen26]

I agree.. I think that some other companies will ebgin sprouting up when they can drive down the cost and make the computer multitask even more than it can today. Some of you may recall the Commodore Amiga...a truely multitaking platform, the PC is still far from being a real hardware multitaking platform, but Linux/Unix multitaks quite nicely. We will have to keep our eyes open as things evolve. Boy wouldn't it be nice to see a forum where those people who engineer both electronics and software could post ideas in what they think the future of chipsets and operating systems should be. Heck Lindows, though still in a young stage, is doing quite well. Anyone try to install it yet?? It takes a whopping 7 minutes start to finish, yes thats right 7 minutes. How long does it take Windows XP, a whole hour and for what a lot of stuff I will never use. Oh well...wait and see..
Mark C. Greenwood, CNE
m_jgreenwood@yahoo.com

With more than 10 years experience to share.

 

[Sleidia]

The most pessimistic view:

Wireless technology will evolve so much that people will have terabytes of data passing through their bodies every seconds, thus increasing cancers and leukemias dramatically.

Then, either wireless technology will have to cease, or people will have to genetically modify their body to make them "microwave compliant"!

Animal behaviour will also change considered the fact that studies revealed that they are very receptive to microwaves.

Have a good day

 

[AIXSPadmin]

Multitask, shmultitask... it's process scheduling! hehe...

 

[DrGreen26]

LOL, Kind of funny how wireless supposedly causes cancer. Yet, when people climb power towers and utility poles, not a single person has ever developed cancer from working on power transmission equipment. Considering most work done is with power lines still live. Hmmm, so if the frequency that power passes through wire is much much higher than most wireless communications devices, how is it that wireless could cause cancer? I just had to throw this out becuase an engineer I worked with pointed this out and being that I work in the telecommunications industry, I find it rather interesting that people would say this without ever having taken the time to do the research. of course its a pessimistic view, but hey, I just don't want the world believing the cancer is caused by wireless. Now if you sit in front of an actual microwave antenna that is point to point, well sterile you shall be due to the radiation which is more concentrated. In the meantime, I will jsut wait and see what else pops up here while my son screams in my ear. Enjoy.. Mark C. Greenwood, CNE
m_jgreenwood@yahoo.com

With more than 10 years experience to share.

 

[guestgulkan]

I too am sceptical about the mobile/cancer link.
I worked with telecoms (VHF/UHF/SHF) for 12 years.

I think it is the current trend amongst scientist to spread general panic and doomsday scenarios. Good way to get noticed/free taxpayers money for research I suppose.

Asteroids hitting the earth is latest scenario i see being
touted.

 

[Sleidia]

Well DrMarkGreen, I do no pretend I know whether or not microwaves cause cancer, but the more studies are done, the more scientists pinpoints interesting facts and results linking microwaves and disease.
Also, the point you made isn't very logical because you forgot to take into consideration this:
- I was extrapolating, imagining that the quantity of data transmitted via microwaves would be far higher than currently (25 years away from now is far).
- People who work on power transmission antennas aren't exposed 48 hours/days.

Place to go:

http://www.microwavenews.com/

The idea I wanted to share is the fact that human beings are more and more in demand of communication technologies and even if it is proven that such technologies can harm them physically, people would prefer to take the risk instead of going back to the good old safer technologies. I found interesting to think that in the future perhaps, for the first time in history, human beings would eventually choose to genetically modify themselves only for the purpose of communicating via wireless technology.
But, this is only extrapolation, isn't it

 

[Sleidia]

People here are quite short-sighted in my opinion.

In 25 years the following technologies could be available:

Quantum Computation

http://www.msnbc.com/news/269473.asp

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992875

DNA Computation

http://www.liacs.nl/home/pier/webPagesDNA/index.html

Storage Methods

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992930

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992775

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992248

etc...

 

[guestgulkan]

I would love all these to come true in my lifetime.
However, in my opinion such advanced technologies depend on the big boys [especially the military] not the humble joe.
The military spend big time - and if they like it, then serious resources will be ploughed into it.

 

[Grenage]

Indeed, while I haven't seen anything saying for sure that it causes cancers or other illnesses I detest the idea of wireless. It's messy and cabling is my prefered choice.

 

[CajunCenturion]

I get blasted by guestgulkan for been too forward thinking, and then Sleidia blasts us for being too short-sighted.

Tough Crowd !! Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

 

[xutopia]

Well we are all guessing so it doesn't really matter who's right or wrong! I guess we'll see in 25 years and be able to say "told you!!!"!

Has anyone read Brave New World by Huxley?

Gary

http://www.xutopia.com

Haran