I know the forum name is "Where is IT going in the next 5 years" - BUT 19

[guestgulkan]

The IT, computer and software industry has always been over
optomistic - so I will say 25 years time (just as I'm retiring).
This is what I expect/would like to see:

1. The death of landline (copper and fibre optic) modem.
Wireless (mobile phone) to rule.
However, requires humongous increase in mobile bandwith - maybe to 1 GBit/sec. Possible?
saves all that nonsense with different modem connectors
for different countries, etc..

2. The harmonisation of OS's - The browser will be the thing.
The OS will become browser based.
Maybe they will be many types of PC, with different CPU types - but they will run a common specification browser interface API. No more *ix, windows, Mac OS specific programming!
Bootup to the browser.
Javascript and java will evolve to be the common programming
languages.

3. IP V6 - will it take over by then???????????

4. No more driver disks/CD's.
Memory will be so cheap - peripherals such as printers & scanners will come with the driver(s) already in them.
True plug & play.

5. CHEAPER SOFTWARE !!
No more distribution of software on CD's.
The applications are on the web. Only user specific files
are stored locally. Access/payment is all part of the ISP package.

 

[CajunCenturion]

If that's where we are in 25 years, that I'll be very disappointed. Such a wish list is based on the assumption that we won't have any major technological advances by then.

In 25 years, I would expect almost everything to be complete wireless and encrypted. Every appliance will have a unique address, not in an IP sense, but more likely in a MAC sense.

I don't think the PC will exist, at least not as we know it today. Processing will be neural based - carbon will replace silicon as the key element.

We'll have symbiotic interfaces, possibly using wireless neural technology.

Programming languages will be replaces by Voice based Natural Language Interpreters.

There won't be application software as we know it today. People will tell the processor what they want to do, and it will just do it. Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

 

[Craftor]

There was an interesting article yesterday (and I cannot for the life of me remember where I read it) on Garner's (I think...) predictions of IT in the next 5 to 10 years.

Off the top of my head:

1. Processor power continuing to double every 18 months so we will look at people clocking at 40 gHz with 40gigs of RAM and 10 terabytes of storage.

2. Advances with optical fibres making it cheaper to store things in a network environment than on local disks

3. At least 1 major player in all the major industries vanishing.

4. (Once again!) Advances in productivity and automation causing layoffs for millions - including those in the IT sector.

I can't remember the rest but I'll try to find the link to the article

Craftor

 

[guestgulkan]

Sorry CajunCenturion - but I think the recent 'meltdown' in
the Techstock market has tempered the public enthusiasm
for computer/internet somewhat, because the public feel it was taken for a ride.
So I don't think anything much will happen in the next five years at least.
Major effort (with real products not pie-in-the-sky bull) required by Tech Companies to resolve this situation.
This is not something that the Tech companies are used to.

 

[CajunCenturion]

Your point about the meltdown is well taken, however, your question deals with 25 years, not just 5. And this is a commercial short-term effect. I do not believe that it will have a major impact on long-term research and development. Much of the research is done at universities, think-thanks, research firms, funded by grants, many from the NSF and other philanthopic organizations. Commercial R&D budges are quite small by comparison.

So whereas I agree that the next 3-5 years will see a slow-down in commercial development, long-term technology development will continue. The state of affairs in IT 25 years from now will be far dependent on long-term technology development, and not short-term commercial products.

This is a fun topic.


Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

 

[jad]

disk space is gonna get cheap, so cheap that noone would want to pay an ISP to hold their confidential data, their diaries, calendars and gossip between their friends. we are currently less than 1 pound per gigabyte, and IBM have terabytes on the way for a similar cost (to them).
Over then last 20 years the number of OS's has increased not decreased, the possible software solution to one OS on multiple platforms in recent years was the Java OS, and that has been effectively binned. Linus Torvalds tried doing an equivalent in hardware, the computer that could make itself compatible with any other computer, it was nice enough, but it got left behind as dedicated hardware got forever faster.
I reckon that instead of converging on technology; 50% will converge, and 50% will diverge into every conceivable niche, but requiring their own specialised software/OS. however that will include all embedded devices.
However that said, Copper has had it's day, driverless/drivered devices sounds realistic, removal of most media (except for backup, but that'll probably be closer to harddrive technology) and moving to very high speed net access for program install (although programs will still install locally, they are never going to produce net access that can outstrip a super fast bus on your computer, and you're not going to be short of space) sounds right.

however i can probably bet that our accounts department wont move beyond Pentium systems ... but that'll only happen because the 486's they've currently got will have dead power supplies

One day i might get a budget to make the future come true at this place

 

[MrGreed]

Super Fast data transfer is the key to the (IT) Industry in the next 25 years. Hardware, memory, and cpu's are already surpassing most users needs in speed and reliability. It is the rate of communicating that is holding up the industry. I do believe as some above that Wireless communication is the future.

The IT industry is a business and will still be a very large business in 25 years. Sure jobs will change some lost some newly created, but there will always be a need for the human aspect. I don't think there will ever be a Standard one (OS), to many competing compaines and independant idealist developers will always exist.

There are already a couple of companies having some kind of "bioTech" devices implanted on the human body. As with the military implanting a device the size of a single piece of rice that actually runs off of the human bodies own "electrical current" that acts as a GPS tracking system so you can monitor a soliders exact position.

I agree above that Voice commands will be the next step in the (IT) evolution. A completly new Programming language will also evolve for working with these new technologies.

Anyways, Just MOP
"did you just say Minkey?, yes that's what I said."

MrGreed

 

[Craftor]

What does everyone think about the move away from the 'desk based' PC to a more 'mobile' computer - like a Palm on steroids?

 

[Craftor]

And in case anyone is interested - here is the link to the article I mentioned:

http://techupdate.zdnet.com/techupdate/stories/main/0,14179,2885192,00.html

 

[heftyprawn]

I'll be interested to see if the mainframes have been switched off by then, my bet is not. I started working with them in 88, was told in 90 to get retrained and get out because they would be obsolete in 5 years time and have made a good living out of them ever since. I have moved into networking now but more out of a desire to learn something new and start pushing myself again rather that any fear of losing my job anytime soon.
I do find it interesting that in a world that moves so fast some things do stick around, perhaps in 25 years the world will belong to MVS (what a terrible thought !)

 

[jad]

when i did the 'implications of information technology' at college (quite a while back, inbetween naps) i remember that there is one industry that is actually gaining employees due to the IT industry ...

they are having to employ more people to physically ferry equipment around the country. if you want a secure job for the future (if they don't have intelligent vehicles by then, and with consumers the way they are it is very unlikely that we will every actually lose control of vehicles, even though it would be safer and quicker to do it that way) learn to drive a HGV

you can't download stuff physically from the internet, even if you could in 25 years time (heh heh) you would need some equipment to download from tne internet to start with

 

[Grenage]

Indeed, look back 25 years to see how much the IT industry has changed. In fact just look back 10 and it's completely different. Neuro interfaces would be great, they have a simple mouse controler like that but its a bit primitive (in use not technical achievement).

What we all want are matrix style head jacks (just as long as power surges dont exist in 25 years aswell

 

[jad]

what we really want is holodeck style non-intrusive interfaces, but with mind reading potential ...

 

[guestgulkan]

Personally, I think there will be a consumer/human backlash,
against computers.
Who want fridges, washing machines, and vacuum cleaners
with internet access, or that nag you in that boring
synthetic voice about your eating habits and
personal hygiene.
Hell, I've got a wife for that.
I watched a few future programs on the Discovery channel recently, and I personnaly don't want to be around
for that machine orientated Utopia they were on about.

 

[AIXSPadmin]

Unless people are comfortable with the technology then it will not be implemented. They have talked about having your operating system be the internet and no more local hard drive but it would all be stored on virtual internet storage. I don't believe this would ever happen because people would not be comfortable with not having their data stored locally, I for one would not do it, there are too many problems and security can never be guaranteed, even locally, but at least I can secure my machine as I want and have control of it.

The same would go for any technology. I also, don't want a fridge or toaster having an IP. Or even my thermostat, shoot someone would crack it and I come home after a week of vacation and have a forest growing inside because someone turned the heat up to 90 and the humidity up to 90!

But one must remember, even if they have the technology a business will not do it if the venture doesn't turn a profit.

 

[xutopia]

1. Artificial intelligence will be the studied in more details and prototypes will be made to speak with you.

2. Talking to your computer will be your #1 way of interacting with it.

3. Open source software cut the legs of Microsoft.

4. Chips will be linked to your brain so you can have direct access to immense information (like dictionaries or encyclopedia). We will call this the real 6th sense (as opposed to instinct) as people born with the connection done at birth will be better at using it than older people getting the connection.

5. psychology will change drastically and will be more coherent than before (thanks to software).

6. AIDS and other viruses will become a major problem as people will be able to live longer and longer with the viruses and transmit it to more people. Computers will be used to create anti-viruses (viruses that attack other viruses) by genetic modeling.

7. your cell phone or watchphone will be capable of computing as much as your average desktop today.

8. digital cameras will hover around 100 Mega pixels. Average users will be happy with 25 Mega Pixels.

9. Mars will have a sun powered super computer.

10. Everyone will know their genetic predisposition to health dangers thanks to computers and genetics combining in software that everyone will be able to have at home. People will create better breeds of humans.

Oh yeah less people will believe in God Gary

http://www.xutopia.com

Haran

 

[guestgulkan]

I look forward to AudioVisual programming!
You will dictate your program - saves all that tiresome
typing!

Here is the MS AudioVisual C+++ IDE:

"Please select from the following options"
"if you want a new C+++ project - say ONE"
"if you to open a saved C+++ project say TWO"
....
"You have chosen option TWO".
If you want a MFC application say ONE"
"if you want a DLL application say TWO"
...............

 

[xutopia]

I gave a star to everyone for their insight. I found this rather interesting. Gary

http://www.xutopia.com

Haran

 

[DrGreen26]

The threads here are quite intriguing I must say. Being a former LANADMIN and now working in the telecommunications industry I felt I needed to throw a couple more pennies into the pot. Since the downturn in the telecom/data world I have been able to witness many companies, including the one I work for, reduce its staff. It is common all across the board especially for companies that have been in business for years. That being said I do see the light at the end of the tunnel and my guess is by this time next summer many industries will be busy in the telecom/data world. Why do I say this, well the Fed is already pumping millions of dollars into the local economies for preparedness due to 9/11 --- I am all sure we remember what happened on this date. That being said, I know for a fact the Homeland Security funding will start funneling into the economies sometime mid spring of next year. With this money being used to build up secuirty systems within airports and the buildup of ITS (Intelligent Transportation Networks) throughout the country. You might wander how these play a role in what we as IT ppl do, well here it is. Secuirty systems at AIrports, imagine integrating a CCTV System, Digital Video Recording SYstem, Intercom System and Acess Control SYstem all in one. INteresting project, but they all have servers and they all have remote client devices. So as you can see, this is just the first step in ppl going back to work and the telecom/data world getting geared up for a several year endeavor just to answer the requirements that uncle sam will add. For ITS infrastructures, well, most of us see the camera and variable message signs on the road, and they all tie into a central NOC for that states DOT, and the demand will be to push this even further, add this with the automation of traffic control signals etc, and you have an increase of work. In fact I am starting to see requirements for switches to be installed in environments where traffic lights are <--- who would of thought. So my comments in closing is, though the IT world is slow and has taken a downturn, I strongly recommend that those of you who are out of work, start building up your knowledge on some of these areas, because it will be the next solid boom in the industry which in turn will affect everything else that will develop and expand.

My three cents worth.

Enjoy Mark C. Greenwood, CNE
m_jgreenwood@yahoo.com

With more than 10 years experience to share.

 

[jimmmaaa]

Hey Mark, how do you think that will play out in traditional telecom, e.g. PBX vs Internet Telephon, VoIP or general &quot;Convergenece&quot;? Will that help accellerate convergence or slow it down? I see a lot of hype about Convergence and have not seen much substance.