Will programmers soon become obsolete?

[MattMcGinnis]

Hi all,

I'd like to start a discussion here about the future of programming. I have evolved from help desk to systems administrator to half sys admin half Oracle DBA (which I still am) and for the last year I've been learning to program. For me, this was a natural progression and I feel that programming is at the highest level and it makes me feel like I have finally attained some real power and capability. I don't mean that in the "I rule all" kind of way, but rather in the sense that if I need a solution that would have ended up being kludgey and akward with my previous skills, I now have extreme flexibility, control, and capability to develop a solution which is automated, simple to implement and works the way I want it to every time.

An example is a program I recently wrote in Perl which retrieves data from many different tables in an Oracle database, often executing the same query repeatedly with different parameters each time. This data is then written to an Excel spreadsheet where calculations are performed and graphs are generated. This runs automatically each day and I estimate that this would take a data entry person at least three hours to perform the same tasks, probably with a few mistakes now and then.

Now I come to my point. I've been reading a lot lately about programmers getting laid off and not finding jobs for years and being replaced by newbies and H-1Bs. These articles predict the demise of high level/pay programming jobs and predict that DBA/sys admin jobs will remain the only viable IT positions. For instance,

http://www.computerworld.com/managementtopics/management/story/0,10801,74184,00.html

Another disturbing and depressing read is located here

http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/itaa.real.html

Basically it says that older programmers are doomed because no one will hire them, even though they could learn the needed language in a few weeks time and become more productive in less time than a newbie or H-1B and that hiring people are basically just ignorant about IT and they discriminate against these older programmers continually.

I thought I had found a great career path which would utilize all my knowledge of computer systems and enable my to become a high skilled high paid worker, but it seems as if I am going the wrong direction. The program I mentioned is not the most complicated software, but it required a lot of backend knowledge ....systems, databases, SQL, Excel, mathematics etc... To me, this seems like a very valuable business solution which empowers my employer and provides them with a solid solution. Nothing your run of the mill sys admin could do, IMHO. So, what I would like to hear is all of your opinions the future of programming and if you have any recommendations about how to avoid the perils of the older unemployed programmer. I have so much more to say about this, but only a little time, so I'll leave it at that.

 

[svanels]

First what is a H-1Bs? Who do you define as a programmer? What is his work? Write code? does he have to show up with a certificate of MCSD or something like that?

In my eyes a programmer is some one who solves a problem, have the ability to transform something, like you did getting data out of oracle putting it to excel. These kind of person are always needed.

The language is nothing, how you use it counts. In my work programming is just another tool to make my job easier. The art is to combine al the knowledge you have in all the other areas (databases, system administration, engineering, human resource, bussiness processes etc) with programming to make your day easier. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[petermeachem]

It's not just programmers, its older anyone. Sadly many people in charge of hiring equate youth with knowledge. Most probably because they are young themselves. Peter Meachem
peter @ accuflight.com

 

[MattMcGinnis]

svanels,

H-1Bs are foreigners who are working in IT in America on a special visa which our government decided we needed based on a supposed lack of skill workers in America. Basically a lie. They are cheap labor.

I assume a programmer is someone who gets paid to write code which solves specific problems. I suppose that programming can just be an element of your job. I've always thought that full time developers were high skilled, high paid people.

I am definitely not talking about people who have an MCSD. This is surely not required or referring to someone who is a skilled programmer. A certification is simply a reflection of your knowledge about the theory of a very specific product not the practice or the broader knowledge of a trade.

 

[svanels]

It would be cheaper to let the H-1Bs work in their own country, alias that is already happening, it is called globalization, diversification or cost cutting. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[sedj]

Its like a funeral on this forum.
Come on - cheer up - we're doing what we love arnt we ?
Heck, my work contract says 'Programmer', and all I do ALL day is print f''''ing forms and documents on a 1986 dot atrix printer !!!!!!!


Come on - we still code at home. Isnt that enough ?

 

[CajunCenturion]

Lots of issues being brought bear. To answer the original question Will programmers soon become obsolete?, the short answer is No. Computers aren't going away, and as long we have computers, we'll have programmers, because its the programmers who make the computers do what our employers/clients need that machine to do.

On the other hand, your observations about the reductions in job within the IT field are well founded. But such is not limited to IT. The entire country/world is going thru a recession and its tough on everyone. And as peter has observed, age is also a factor, but again, not just in IT. The foreign worker problem has also been around a long time. But the cycle continues. The economy will turn around, and a number of forecasters predict that in IT, the turnaround should occur sometime in the neighborhood of 12 to 18 months from now.

Unfortunately, we will about another year and a half or so older, and the age curve will become more and more of a factor.

I would like to ask you about the following statements that you made in your follow up post:

I am definitely not talking about people who have an MCSD. This is surely not required or referring to someone who is a skilled programmer. Since you're not talking about someone with an MCSD, what about someone with a Ph.D in Computer Science?, a Masters?, and Bachelors Degree, or an Associates Degree? Where do you draw the line between qualification and experience as to who and who you are not talking about. I think all of these do make a difference into how this issue will play out over the next year or so.

A certification is simply a reflection of your knowledge about the theory of a very specific product not the practice or the broader knowledge of a trade. I would have to disagree with a small part of this statement. I don't think certification holders know nearly enough of the theory behind the technology which the certification implies they understand. To include theory in that statement is to give more credence to the certification that has been earned. I agree completely with the lack of trade knowledge and broader technology understanding - as a general rule. Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

 

[MattMcGinnis]

CajunCenturion,

I think the real question here (but that doesn't really fit into the subject line) is "Is the number of high paying programming jobs going to become very small in the near future." I'm looking to stay in a very technical position, but also receive a large salary. (aren't we all ) It may just be that I will have to start my own company to get the income I'm looking for (if the company is successful) However, this will take a huge chunk of time away from the fun tech stuff.

To answer your first question...I'm not necessarily ruling out someone with an MCSD, this person could be a very skilled programmer. If we are talking about someone with no experience who got the cert looking for a big paycheck, then you can rule that specific person out. I believe that the large majority of people with a B.S. or above in Computer Science are most likely worth a lot to a company.(if they still retian interest in the field) I've got a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering and although much of my school work doesn't apply to my field of choice, it still prepared my in MANY ways for the working world and also provided me with excellent analytical skills etc... We are talking about ANYONE who is a skilled programmer and is paid very well. I think in lean times, the graduates will prevail over the non-institutional educated, but not in all cases.

<I>&quot;I would have to disagree with a small part of this statement. I don't think certification holders know nearly enough of the theory behind the technology which the certification implies they understand. To include theory in that statement is to give more credence to the certification that has been earned. I agree completely with the lack of trade knowledge and broader technology understanding - as a general rule.&quot;</I>

I think we basically agree on this and notice that I did say the &quot;knowledge about the theory of a very specific PRODUCT.&quot; I really wasn't even giving them credit for knowledge of general theory, just the theoretical use of a specific product such as Windows NT. This says nothing about the theory behind technology like TCP/IP and the like. Heck, I'm not even giving them credit for knowing the actual use of a product, just the theoretical use...pretty insignificant. Knowing programming theory is infinitely useful. Knowing how to hack a little in some language is a little useful. I'm somewhere in between since I chose the wrong path in school and didn't get all of the solid programming theory. (I'm working on that.)

Another note on certs (as if this hasn't been hashed out a million times on a million message boards) Certs can be useful in that by studying for them, a beginner will become familiar with the terms and concepts and therefore learn faster on the job than if they had not worked to get the cert. They can also be useful to experienced people in that they may further their knowledge and learn small but useful things that they had not come across in their job.

I'm quite a bit off the original topic but I've been thinking some more about all of this and I decided that what I think would be a great job would be a consulting position where you are basically over-paid (much the same way business are for their services) to provide specialized solutions. Here you also have a lot of down time (lets say only 2 or three days per week of actual billable time) where you can study new technology or increase your knowledge of a specialty. Keeping up in IT is a given. However, I would also like an environment where I could learn from peers and share my knowledge with them and consulting wouldn't provide this unless it was a business team of consultants.

Anyone else have thoughts on the original topic?

 

[MattMcGinnis]

OOPS, I guess regular html doesn't work here.

 

[svanels]

Programmers will not become obsolete, just for the simple fact that computers are not becomming obsolete (they are multiplying). Why do you think these H-1Bs programs exists? Only for the cheap work force? I hold also a BSc in mechanical engineering and I wouldn't exchange it for nothing. My programming knowledge started from in my student time and I was always capable combining this two areas.

for the html use:

 [i] This is italic [/i]

Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[garwain]

No, I don't think the programmer will become obsolete any time soon. I see it being just the opposite in fact. Right now we have a poor economy, most industries are needing to cut expenses, and programmers are really taking a hit. With more and more buisnesses moving towards automated solutions, they are needing more and more skilled programmers. Factories that bring un automated production lines may no longer need the workers on the line, but now they are needing much higher paid technicians to service the machines, and industrial programmers to modify the order of operation along the line. I know from experiance, there is plenty of work out there. in some areas, the market is too flooded due to the layoffs, and high turnout from boot camp schools, but I believe for the most part the problem is that people don't know where to look. I've talked with quite a few unemployed programmers, and every one of them has told me how many CVs they have passed out at the big companies doing web or software design trying to get in as even a junior programmer. After asking them, I usually find out that they havent even tried at any of the small companies. A couple years ago I contacted 3 companies, one turned me down because they didn't think I could handle it there, because everyone spoke French (I am now working in a completely French company). Second place turned me down becauseI had no experiance with the database they used (I could have easily learned it). Third place hardly glanced at my CV, I had a quick phone interview with the only IT guy at the time, and got a job. I'm now the main DBA, webmaster, and do most of their internal programming. This is a small company with less than 20 employees

 

[CajunCenturion]

The revised question -- Is the number of high paying programming jobs going to become very small in the near future -- is much more interesting and thought provoking.

I do believe that we're beginning to see some stratification within the programmer community. I see three basic groups evolving. Group one consists of the professionally educated and trained programmers (I mean BA/BS or higher - the software engineers), and the second group is comprised of Associate Degrees and/or certificated progrmamers. The third group is primarily of self-taught individuals. Over the last 10 years or so, IT has been a real hot area and people from all three groups have been able to find jobs with good salaries. Today, reality is setting in, the Dot.Com explosion is over, and companies are approaching IT with a much more businesslike manner. This coupled with current economic considerations, and the recesion, has hit IT with a double cut-back whammy. I think today, experience notwithstanding, it's very difficult for someone in the self-taught group to break into the field, and even the AS/CERT group is experiencing dificulties. That doesn't mean that having a BS (+) will guarantee a job. Competition is high for the few jobs that are still open. Similarly, the cut-backs have caused layoffs in all groups as well for a range a reasons - from lack of education/training, lack of production, up thru higher costing employees. Regardless of what the company may say in public, these are the primary reasons (education [lack of], production [lack of], and cost) why people are invited to seek gainful employment elsewhere, in a company that provide a better fit for the employee.

So to try and offer an answer to your question - Are programmers becoming obsolete ? Professionally trained and educated programmers - NO. Self-taught programmers - YES. People who consider themselves programmers because they know how to configure pre-canned application are a dying breed.

On the other hand - there will always be jobs for Software Engineers. By software engineer, I mean the professional trained, degreed programmers. Just as you have mechanics and you have professionally trained mechanical engineers, you have electricians and professionally trained electrical engineers, you have programmers and professionally trained software engineers (SE). The available jobs and payscales for SE's will fluctuate in accordance with the economy, but they will be in demand for the foreseeable future.

I think you're going to see the distinction between programmers and software engineers become more prevalent. Programmers will become a commodity. Software Engineering will be the career, upward mobile track. Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

 

[svanels]

I don't think that the self thaught group will shrink, this is the primary feedstock for the other groups. Nobody will start a BSC in software engineering, only because the term sounds nice. These are most likely to finish it. Determination, creativity, doing what you like are the main motivation factors to end any course. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[MattMcGinnis]

CajunCenturion,

That seems to be a reasonable analysis. I can see the self-taught group still being needed, just not getting the high $$. This is bad for me because my formal education is M.E. and not C.S.E. so I am in the self taught group.

I believe that through sheer determination and drive to further my programming skills, I can reach the level attained by S.E.s, however, I may not look as good on paper, so the high $$ jobs may elude me. I'm hoping this isn't the case, but I imagine most of us will be forced into management sooner or later due to many of the factors we've discussed here and the need for more cash. Please God, let that day be far away.

Funny thing about this thread is that there is an article on slashdot today about sys admins becoming obsolete due to better systems. LOL

 

[CajunCenturion]

MattMcGinnis - Since you have an engineering degree, I would not consider you in the self-taught group. You have been professionally educated and trained. You understand that there is a big difference building something and engineeringsomething. The fact that you have change your point of emphsis to software does not detract from the fact that you think like an engineer. I think you realize that programming is the implementation of an engineered design.

As svanels so eloquently stated, I don't think that the self thaught group will shrink, this is the primary feedstock for the other groups and your assessment that they'll always be needed is perhaps correct. My thinking on that group going away is a matter of numbers. As more and more people become available, the entry level bar will get higher, and the self-taught group may have difficultly in reaching that competitive bar. Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

 

[svanels]

Since the industrial revolution in the 19[sup]th[/sup] the profets are saying that man will be coming obsolete. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[Craftor]

A very interesting thread. I'm from South Africa and I personally believe that the IT industry is one of the few that is booming in our current situation. I had the misfortune to be retrenched recently and, within a month of looking, had turned down three offers and have taken up a fantastic fourth. When I came out of college, all I had was a BBA (Batchelor of Business Administration for anyone who didn't know) and a month's experience as a PA. I love PC's and programming but didn't want to do a BSc and, of course, people were reluctant to give me a job in ANY field with no experience. After about half a year of fruitless looking, I did my MCSD in Visual Basic and was hired soon after.

I think the difference is that here people are still a bit 'titles orientated' in that they think that anyone with a cert or a degree can do better than someone with equivalent experience and no qualification. Despite my MCSD, I disagree with that. I am teaching myself Java and Delphi as my organisation refuses to use these languages (for various reasons) and I'm pretty sure I will eventually do as well as someone with a qualification.

I think the programming field is also the easiest to move around in. If you want to change languages, its not a major shift. I came into my new job knowing absolutely NO c# and that's what we program in. Two weeks into the job - I've picked up most of the code that we are working on.

As a programmer, its also increadibly easy to start your own company. All you really need is the equipment and the work to come in. I'm looking at doing this with my boyfriend - and we already have about 3 contracts lined up. Definitely no worries about our future there! Take, for example, the secretary or PA trying to do the same thing! They'd have a very difficult time I believe.

I think programmers have a great future simply because we are so adaptable! Most programmers I know aren't afraid to take on a challenge or learn something new - which is the only way to keep yourself employable these days.

Some of you will undoubtedly think that was a lot of tosh but that's just my 5c worth ;-)

Keep on coding!

Craftor

 

[peterperl]

As a self taught programmer close to 50 years old and without a high paid job, I would say that &quot;Our time will come&quot;. Todays programmers seem to specialize in just one or two languages. I started out programming for the ZX80 (Don't laugh!) in 1981 and the grounding of 'Assembly' is not found at all in modern courses. Since then I have constantly updated my knowledge, which my main point. We have to learn, learn and learn more! You will never be qualified enough if you sit back and relax. The more languages that you know, the more valuable you are. But programming is like art. Paints and brushes are available for all, but few will paint a million dollar masterpiece!
Also like art, one 'good' program could make you a multi-millionaire. That's the real fun of programming - our dreams!

 

[cian]

Finally another McG on the forums!


It's the same in just about every profession. Technology advances and unless you can keep up with it you face getting the boot.
Many of the older generation just aren't as specialised and aren't quite as familiar with the very latest technologies as the younger crew. There is future for programmers, definitly.

Another thing to face is an overload of personnel. Computers (in general. software programming etc) are booming in many countries with more and more people doing courses in Universities/colleges. We see it in web design, there's friggin millions of designers out there. Maybe this will lead to lack of opportunities for people, lower salaries, more specialised courses etc etc etc

Just my 2 shillings!


É
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http://www.endamcg.com

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[ITR]

The revised question -- Is the number of high paying programming jobs going to become very small in the near future -- is much more interesting and thought provoking.

I think they will diminish. Programmers salaries will slowley fall in the next few decades due to a surplus of programmers.
The surplus will be generated by the major software vendors outsourcing work to other countries.

Its just like Nike shoes. Why pay an American $20 an hour + benifits to make a shoe when you can pay someone in a poor country $.50 an hour.


Programmers aren't alone though. The accounting firm I work for is looking to outsource some lower level tax returns to some place in india that will do them very cheap.