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Will programmers soon become obsolete?

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MattMcGinnis

Programmer
Sep 10, 2002
18
US
Hi all,

I'd like to start a discussion here about the future of programming. I have evolved from help desk to systems administrator to half sys admin half Oracle DBA (which I still am) and for the last year I've been learning to program. For me, this was a natural progression and I feel that programming is at the highest level and it makes me feel like I have finally attained some real power and capability. I don't mean that in the "I rule all" kind of way, but rather in the sense that if I need a solution that would have ended up being kludgey and akward with my previous skills, I now have extreme flexibility, control, and capability to develop a solution which is automated, simple to implement and works the way I want it to every time.

An example is a program I recently wrote in Perl which retrieves data from many different tables in an Oracle database, often executing the same query repeatedly with different parameters each time. This data is then written to an Excel spreadsheet where calculations are performed and graphs are generated. This runs automatically each day and I estimate that this would take a data entry person at least three hours to perform the same tasks, probably with a few mistakes now and then.

Now I come to my point. I've been reading a lot lately about programmers getting laid off and not finding jobs for years and being replaced by newbies and H-1Bs. These articles predict the demise of high level/pay programming jobs and predict that DBA/sys admin jobs will remain the only viable IT positions. For instance,
Another disturbing and depressing read is located here Basically it says that older programmers are doomed because no one will hire them, even though they could learn the needed language in a few weeks time and become more productive in less time than a newbie or H-1B and that hiring people are basically just ignorant about IT and they discriminate against these older programmers continually.

I thought I had found a great career path which would utilize all my knowledge of computer systems and enable my to become a high skilled high paid worker, but it seems as if I am going the wrong direction. The program I mentioned is not the most complicated software, but it required a lot of backend knowledge ....systems, databases, SQL, Excel, mathematics etc... To me, this seems like a very valuable business solution which empowers my employer and provides them with a solid solution. Nothing your run of the mill sys admin could do, IMHO. So, what I would like to hear is all of your opinions the future of programming and if you have any recommendations about how to avoid the perils of the older unemployed programmer. I have so much more to say about this, but only a little time, so I'll leave it at that.
 
Yes, I realize I made an assumption when I said "our country". I should amend that to "America and Northern Europe", I suppose ;).

And of course, if you are from India, I also understand that India on its own will need plenty of first-rate "in-country" software design and consultation, so you're not out in the cold either.

-------------------------------------------

My PostgreSQL FAQ --
 
In the end, the power is controlling the data.

When computers were first sold to the business people who had file cabinets full of records, they jumped at the opportunity to get rid of the file cabinets full of paper.

Converting the data from paper to electronic format was highly beneficial for those companies.

The problem that the paper pushers found out after the conversion was that they had lost control over the data.

Being able to control and manage the data is extreme power in an organization.

It's all about the data, not the application.

P.S. As for the comment about DBAs: DBAs don't have any more power than an application programmer. The data administrator has the power and had better have the extreme high tech database skills.
 
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