I'm guessing it doesn't shut down without the -f switch which would suggest one of the processes is preventing XP shutting down. Therefore you want manually end applications/processes with Task Manager before shutting down to determine by a process of elimination which one is causing the problem.
Start by looking for a USB device. Try removing (unplugging) all USB devices and restart the machine. See if it will shutdown normally. Plug back USB devices on at a time to see when the problem re-occurs.
McAfee AV is known to cause this.
Some Troubleshooting Sites worth looking for answers:
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