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IT Market 6
- Thread starter cderow
- Start date
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3
- #2
CajunCenturion
Programmer
Yes, I do believe that it will. Young people follow the money. Right now, we're seeing market saturation because of the money that was in the industry a few years ago. As the money cycle winds down, the younger people will focus their energies on different career options. As has been pointed out in other posts, the nursing profession is at the other end of the spectrum. Available body counts are down, so salaries are going back up to attract more entries into the field.
Back to IT, as the money continues to decrease, that will in turn reduce the people supply, and the cycle will repeat itself. With regards to the certification craze, that too will reduce in importance. Right now, certifications are playing a role in differentiating between people, largely because of the saturation of available canidates. Once the people pool reduces in size, then the need for artificial classifications will no longer be the issue that it is today, thus the value of the certification will go down. The good news is that once we get back to the other end of the cycle, salaries will go back up.
It is really a normal supply/demand economic cycle. Good Luck
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
Back to IT, as the money continues to decrease, that will in turn reduce the people supply, and the cycle will repeat itself. With regards to the certification craze, that too will reduce in importance. Right now, certifications are playing a role in differentiating between people, largely because of the saturation of available canidates. Once the people pool reduces in size, then the need for artificial classifications will no longer be the issue that it is today, thus the value of the certification will go down. The good news is that once we get back to the other end of the cycle, salaries will go back up.
It is really a normal supply/demand economic cycle. Good Luck
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
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Add to this the 'irrational exuberance' in technology during the mid-late 90's. Everyone wanted to be in technology, due to the crazy money, or hoping to get into/near startups that were making a people wealthy.
In 1890, everyone became a miner and went to California and Alaska. Only a handful of these folks were miners before the Gold Rush, and only a few made big money. Once the rush died, people went back to their normal occupations.
The factor here is when people finally decide, in droves, that the rush is over and they are wasting their lives on a fool's dream.
Expect this cycle to take a little longer to turn back due to these factors.
"Helping others to help themselves..."
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Thomas V. Flaherty Jr.
Birch Hill Technology Group, Inc.
In 1890, everyone became a miner and went to California and Alaska. Only a handful of these folks were miners before the Gold Rush, and only a few made big money. Once the rush died, people went back to their normal occupations.
The factor here is when people finally decide, in droves, that the rush is over and they are wasting their lives on a fool's dream.
Expect this cycle to take a little longer to turn back due to these factors.
"Helping others to help themselves..."
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Thomas V. Flaherty Jr.
Birch Hill Technology Group, Inc.
CajunCenturion
Programmer
Your point about 'irrational exuberance' is well taken, but I think we're already beginning to see the end of that. There are lots of people now beginning to lick their wounds with respect to the .com explosion, and I no longer think that exuberance is the word of the day. But you also may be right in that it may take longer then we hope, perhaps due to the reverse effect - the skepticism and over-cautious attitudes with respect to investment into the IT arena. Good Luck
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
I keep a little list of former IT professionals I know who completely changed fields..so, you are right, it is already in motion...
EAI Developer -> opened a mountain bike shop
Data Warehouse VP -> opened a restaurant
Database Designer --> went into software Sales (ugh!)
Web Developer --> went back to Accounting (where he belonged)
Systems Analyst --> became a middle-school teacher
I have a total of 8 so far... "Helping others to help themselves..."
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Thomas V. Flaherty Jr.
Birch Hill Technology Group, Inc.
EAI Developer -> opened a mountain bike shop
Data Warehouse VP -> opened a restaurant
Database Designer --> went into software Sales (ugh!)
Web Developer --> went back to Accounting (where he belonged)
Systems Analyst --> became a middle-school teacher
I have a total of 8 so far... "Helping others to help themselves..."
=================================
Thomas V. Flaherty Jr.
Birch Hill Technology Group, Inc.
Unfortunately none of you have accounted for the influx of cheap labor from India and other countries. Not to mention the move toward using off-shore labor for development projects.
In my area (central Iowa), I've seen a huge increase in the number of jobs filled by Indian contractors. I have several friends that work in hiring positions at various companies in the area. So, I have pretty reliable evidence for what I'm talking about.
Two of our largest corporations (hey that aren't that many here) have started sending some of their projects to Bombay in the last 2 years. The labor is cheap. Each of these projects were directed by senior level managers and developers from here. The projects saved millions in labor costs. While the local economy (particularly the IT job market) flounders.
(-:
At another company they just recently hired in a several dozen Indian contractors to work on-site. This wave of contractors came in at roughly 1/3 the cost of the last wave of Indian contractors that started at this company approximately 1 year ago.
This seems to be a trend across the country among my colleagues. Is anyone else seeing this in their area?
As for me, I purposely made the decision to keep my career on a technical track. I've been a project manager, team lead, etc. Most of my experience is in system analysis and development where I've been the lead analyst and developer.
I had not planned to consider a purely management position. However, I believe the outlook for IT may be moving toward more off-shore development or low-wage-code-crankers that are managed by experienced programmers. So, I'm reconsidering my future as a possible blend between analyst, developer, and manager.
In my area (central Iowa), I've seen a huge increase in the number of jobs filled by Indian contractors. I have several friends that work in hiring positions at various companies in the area. So, I have pretty reliable evidence for what I'm talking about.
Two of our largest corporations (hey that aren't that many here) have started sending some of their projects to Bombay in the last 2 years. The labor is cheap. Each of these projects were directed by senior level managers and developers from here. The projects saved millions in labor costs. While the local economy (particularly the IT job market) flounders.
(-:
At another company they just recently hired in a several dozen Indian contractors to work on-site. This wave of contractors came in at roughly 1/3 the cost of the last wave of Indian contractors that started at this company approximately 1 year ago.
This seems to be a trend across the country among my colleagues. Is anyone else seeing this in their area?
As for me, I purposely made the decision to keep my career on a technical track. I've been a project manager, team lead, etc. Most of my experience is in system analysis and development where I've been the lead analyst and developer.
I had not planned to consider a purely management position. However, I believe the outlook for IT may be moving toward more off-shore development or low-wage-code-crankers that are managed by experienced programmers. So, I'm reconsidering my future as a possible blend between analyst, developer, and manager.
WebDudeIA - you are right on the money "Helping others to help themselves..."
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Thomas V. Flaherty Jr.
Birch Hill Technology Group, Inc.
=================================
Thomas V. Flaherty Jr.
Birch Hill Technology Group, Inc.
CajunCenturion
Programmer
WebdudeIA - The situation that you describe - the influx of cheap labor and the overseas development - are not unique to IT. We've seen that trend in manufaturing areas for quite some time. Its too is part of the cycle. For the most part, the younger generation is going to train themselves for the type of jobs, either here or abroad, based on where the money is.
The world economy is so inter-related that its extremely difficult to nationalize any argument, and I don't believe there is anything in the prior posts that attempt to do so. The supply/demand economic model with respect to the ebb and flow of labor pool size and salary cycles is most definately on an international scale, whether your talking about automobile manufacturing and/or IT jobs. People will follow the money, and that's what drives the cycle. Good Luck
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
The world economy is so inter-related that its extremely difficult to nationalize any argument, and I don't believe there is anything in the prior posts that attempt to do so. The supply/demand economic model with respect to the ebb and flow of labor pool size and salary cycles is most definately on an international scale, whether your talking about automobile manufacturing and/or IT jobs. People will follow the money, and that's what drives the cycle. Good Luck
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
check out this article as well. even though its dated back 4-5 months. what is your opinion on this.
Interesting articles.
In my area, I'm seeing similar cutbacks in all areas. Not just IT. It's not just IT that is getting hit, it's every department from the engineers to vice presidents of sales and marketing.
But as the author stated, "The skills shortage will be back with us very soon..".
If you adapt to the changes in technology you will always be in demand. The demand is low now. But, it will be back.
Personally, I don't expect the economy as a whole to turn around for years. Possibly not until the latter part of this decade. But, I do expect to see pockets of brightness in IT within the next 12 months.
In my area, I'm seeing similar cutbacks in all areas. Not just IT. It's not just IT that is getting hit, it's every department from the engineers to vice presidents of sales and marketing.
But as the author stated, "The skills shortage will be back with us very soon..".
If you adapt to the changes in technology you will always be in demand. The demand is low now. But, it will be back.
Personally, I don't expect the economy as a whole to turn around for years. Possibly not until the latter part of this decade. But, I do expect to see pockets of brightness in IT within the next 12 months.
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AIXSPadmin
MIS
I agree with ThomVF that IT did become like the California gold rush, in that everyone thought they would go into IT and make $80,000-$100,000/year.
Unless you work for a large corporation as I do (Fortune 500), then the pay for IT may be slightly higher than other jobs, but not abnormally high. I think another aspect that plays into this is, what is IT that people are talking about? When they say go into IT are they talking about pc repair? They are a dime a dozen. Are they talking people who put up static websites using only HTML? They are a dime a dozen. Most people work for small-medium sized business and they simply cannot afford to pay very large sums of money for anyone, even IT people. I used to work for a small-medium sized business and the pay was not a great deal of money and I had to do everything from RPG programming, AIX admin, networking, NT admin, pc repair, tech support, etc.
The IT field is driven like any other part of the economy - supply and demand. Salaries in IT have not expanded in the last couple of years because of the slowdown and because of that more people are in the market for a job. As for the foreign worker area you are bringing up, a lot of companies no longer will accept foreign-worker visa's allowing them to work in the US because of September 11th. As far as work being sent over to a foreign country to have software produced, that may be so for commercially-sold software, but that is a small fraction of all software developed. Most software is written for business and they do it in-house or they out-source (not a foreign country though).
Most of the work done by IT workers anywhere is not that complicated I will be the first to admit. It isn't rocket science. It isn't anymore skilled than an accountant (I hated that in college), or nursing, or finance. My point in this is just because it is IT doesn't mean that it should automatically be assumed that the pay should be high. As I said, what does the individual actually do and what size of company? That will determine the pay a lot of times. What size market (30,000 population vs 2 million population) has an affect on salary, too because the large metro areas can support higher pay scales.
Who would you think should be paid more? A network guy who assigns IP addresses; a firefighter who has to respond to a chemical warehouse fire (with peoples lives at stake); an elementary teacher that is going to be an influence on your children for at least a year in their most formative years.
I know which of the three shouldn't be paid the most.
Most importantly, enjoy what you do, if you don't then work becomes intolerable and most people have to do it for 30-40 years. So if you have to work that long, do something that you truly enjoy, don't just do it becasue it pays the most but you really hate it.
Unless you work for a large corporation as I do (Fortune 500), then the pay for IT may be slightly higher than other jobs, but not abnormally high. I think another aspect that plays into this is, what is IT that people are talking about? When they say go into IT are they talking about pc repair? They are a dime a dozen. Are they talking people who put up static websites using only HTML? They are a dime a dozen. Most people work for small-medium sized business and they simply cannot afford to pay very large sums of money for anyone, even IT people. I used to work for a small-medium sized business and the pay was not a great deal of money and I had to do everything from RPG programming, AIX admin, networking, NT admin, pc repair, tech support, etc.
The IT field is driven like any other part of the economy - supply and demand. Salaries in IT have not expanded in the last couple of years because of the slowdown and because of that more people are in the market for a job. As for the foreign worker area you are bringing up, a lot of companies no longer will accept foreign-worker visa's allowing them to work in the US because of September 11th. As far as work being sent over to a foreign country to have software produced, that may be so for commercially-sold software, but that is a small fraction of all software developed. Most software is written for business and they do it in-house or they out-source (not a foreign country though).
Most of the work done by IT workers anywhere is not that complicated I will be the first to admit. It isn't rocket science. It isn't anymore skilled than an accountant (I hated that in college), or nursing, or finance. My point in this is just because it is IT doesn't mean that it should automatically be assumed that the pay should be high. As I said, what does the individual actually do and what size of company? That will determine the pay a lot of times. What size market (30,000 population vs 2 million population) has an affect on salary, too because the large metro areas can support higher pay scales.
Who would you think should be paid more? A network guy who assigns IP addresses; a firefighter who has to respond to a chemical warehouse fire (with peoples lives at stake); an elementary teacher that is going to be an influence on your children for at least a year in their most formative years.
I know which of the three shouldn't be paid the most.
Most importantly, enjoy what you do, if you don't then work becomes intolerable and most people have to do it for 30-40 years. So if you have to work that long, do something that you truly enjoy, don't just do it becasue it pays the most but you really hate it.
It's definitely true that people new to the job market tend to follow the money. I ran into a great example of this when I was attending college. One of the students in a class with me was complaining that she didn't like the class or the teacher and couldn't figure out all of the "math stuff" involved (I believe the class was C/C++). So of course I asked her why she was taking programming classes if she didn't like the course matter. Her response was "I wanted to go into accounting but I was told I would only make $7-$8 an hour when I finished, so I asked what degree they offered that would pay the most". Now granted this is one person out of the 50 or so I spoke to in that class. But I think it sums up the attitude of a lot of people who wanted to get into the industry.
And Cajun you're right about the nursing thing. My fiancee is in nursing school and the demand is outrageous. The local hospital is paying for her college in exchange for her accepting a job there on graduation. I've also heard stories of people receiving signing bonuses in the range of $10k. Does that sound like another profession we're all familiar with about 5 years ago?
And Cajun you're right about the nursing thing. My fiancee is in nursing school and the demand is outrageous. The local hospital is paying for her college in exchange for her accepting a job there on graduation. I've also heard stories of people receiving signing bonuses in the range of $10k. Does that sound like another profession we're all familiar with about 5 years ago?
its funny - Nike & Gap started off the trend (or at least continued the tradition) of putting production into cheap warehouses where children are paid 1p and hour for making training shoes - I know that if 99% of IT based companies could do the same they would. The next best thing is to package up work and send it out to be done by slightly older and more educated kids working for an Indian software house.
GlenJohnson
MIS
I spend a lot of time in the W2K server forum, and there's some really brilliant people there. However, I've started seeing a trend of people showing up asking questions about how to do something, that should be basic networking. Companies are starting to put people in charge of networks or working on networks with little or no experience. Most of the time if someone has a legit request with a problem, I try and help. Other times when someone comes up and says "The boss wants me to do such and such, what does PING mean." Sorry, but I'm not about to teach someone about networking, because there boss is to cheap to either get them training, or hiring one of the however many thousands of IT people that are out of work. Might be spightful, but I'm one of the people not getting hired, and I've passed two of the MS tests, working on a third, trying to get trained. Glen A. Johnson
Microsoft Certified Professional
glen@nellsgiftbox.com
![[bat]](/data/assets/smilies/bat.gif "[bat] [bat]")
"Knowledge of the world is only to be acquired in the world, and not in a closet."
Lord Chesterfield 1694-1773); English statesman.
Microsoft Certified Professional
glen@nellsgiftbox.com
"Knowledge of the world is only to be acquired in the world, and not in a closet."
Lord Chesterfield 1694-1773); English statesman.
Well, speaking as a old timer, the current IT job
market will not self correct for at least 12 to 18
more months. The question posed is a valid one,
however, but lets look at the reason we are in this
mess today:
1. The dot-com to dot-bomb craze attracted every
person who could take one or two courses and say
"i'm the guy or gal to hire...". When it came
time to slice the bread, these people simply couldn't
perform (and they knew it).
2. The concept of $$$$ for a job. I tell students
constantly that if you are looking to get into I.T.
to make a lot of money, you are going to be left with
a bad taste in your mouth. I earn probably $60K
including benefits, and for the area I live in, it's
more than twice the average income (so I can't complain)
and I have more than 20 years experience in I.T. (my
first job I made about $6.00 an hour, btw).
3. The problem of people not understanding what this
field is really all about. I correct a lot of people
when they think it's only about surfing the web all
day long, and playing solitaire. In most cases, when
things are running 100%, you have a LOT of idle time
on your hands (this time should be spent exploring
new technologies, documenting processes, studying,
etc). As long as you are going to be in I.T., you
will NEED to be a student for the remainder of
your life.
I could go on, but I think you get the general idea,
the market will creep back slowly, but we will NEVER
go back to the dot-com craze of a few years ago (and
if we do, I think employers will BE a LOT more careful
as to who gets hired).
market will not self correct for at least 12 to 18
more months. The question posed is a valid one,
however, but lets look at the reason we are in this
mess today:
1. The dot-com to dot-bomb craze attracted every
person who could take one or two courses and say
"i'm the guy or gal to hire...". When it came
time to slice the bread, these people simply couldn't
perform (and they knew it).
2. The concept of $$$$ for a job. I tell students
constantly that if you are looking to get into I.T.
to make a lot of money, you are going to be left with
a bad taste in your mouth. I earn probably $60K
including benefits, and for the area I live in, it's
more than twice the average income (so I can't complain)
and I have more than 20 years experience in I.T. (my
first job I made about $6.00 an hour, btw).
3. The problem of people not understanding what this
field is really all about. I correct a lot of people
when they think it's only about surfing the web all
day long, and playing solitaire. In most cases, when
things are running 100%, you have a LOT of idle time
on your hands (this time should be spent exploring
new technologies, documenting processes, studying,
etc). As long as you are going to be in I.T., you
will NEED to be a student for the remainder of
your life.
I could go on, but I think you get the general idea,
the market will creep back slowly, but we will NEVER
go back to the dot-com craze of a few years ago (and
if we do, I think employers will BE a LOT more careful
as to who gets hired).
A lot of interesting points raised in this - I'm from the UK and have just moved from contracting ( which is dying a slow death here at the moment ) into a permanent IT Management position.
The biggest thing that suprised me when I was contracting was when I was working in 3rd Line Support for a very large telco company. Upon my infrequent visits to the intial "trouble-shooting" departments I found that out of the 40 or so people taking the calls , only 20 of them there really knew what they were talking about - And do bear in mind that this dept only dealt with M$ based problems.
What scared me more that before these guys were recruited into their contracts they were made to take a " Technical Test " and the highest pass mark ever was 70%. Need I say the test could have been taken by a 16 year old "PC Fanatic"....
The worst was yet to come when I found out that they were earning roughly £20 p/h.
Upon asking one of the senior people in that Dept why call resolution standards were so bad he replied " They don't care - its quick , good money - and if they can't solve it they pass it onto the 2nd line and then to you guys "..
So why on earth are glorified receptionists being paid so much????
And why are companies testing methods so very poor??
It's the "fast buck" ethos which has damaged this industry and its proper workforce so much.
"What happens if I press *that* button?"
The biggest thing that suprised me when I was contracting was when I was working in 3rd Line Support for a very large telco company. Upon my infrequent visits to the intial "trouble-shooting" departments I found that out of the 40 or so people taking the calls , only 20 of them there really knew what they were talking about - And do bear in mind that this dept only dealt with M$ based problems.
What scared me more that before these guys were recruited into their contracts they were made to take a " Technical Test " and the highest pass mark ever was 70%. Need I say the test could have been taken by a 16 year old "PC Fanatic"....
The worst was yet to come when I found out that they were earning roughly £20 p/h.
Upon asking one of the senior people in that Dept why call resolution standards were so bad he replied " They don't care - its quick , good money - and if they can't solve it they pass it onto the 2nd line and then to you guys "..
So why on earth are glorified receptionists being paid so much????
And why are companies testing methods so very poor??
It's the "fast buck" ethos which has damaged this industry and its proper workforce so much.
"What happens if I press *that* button?"
MichelleButler
IS-IT--Management
I feel the IT market and really died down and the salaries for high paid jobs have reduced almost half. I feel that I am at a disadvantage because I am in an IT Managers role and the jobs I am apply for (similar) to what I am doing now, I have been told, that I am too qualified and that my present company pays too high. I am looking for a new job because I am going to be made redundant. The cycle worsens. Do anybody agree?
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