>"....then I fail to see how the vociferous few who support Apple's operating systems are going to have much if any impact on Microsoft's market share."
It is already happening. I can bear witness. Last year, friends and family members upgraded their systems. Most were fead up with virus threats (and in some cases complete rebuilds). I was also tired of suporting their machines. All but one bought Apple. The other bought a Dell/Linux. He did not like Linux and is now shopping for an iMac G5. In 2003, my company had zero Apple. Today we have 4. But, one of them is a test machine. We run our legacy apps through Citrix and Microsoft OSX. This was a cheaper overall configuration than if we had installed a normal Dell station. It is working VERY well. I am going to set-up 4 more of them in September.
I am not a MS basher. In my opinion, they have done more for computing than anyone. I just want them to clean-up their act and get away from the 'predatory pricing' that has evolved. Remember when MS was trying to establish NT as a viable alternative Server platform to Unix? The overall cost was very enticing, even if the performance lacked. Now that they have the huge market share, their prices are completely out of site. Heck, the landed SW cost of a XP Pro/Office Pro configuration is going to set you back about $600.
Not having competition is usually a bad thing for the consumer. Now days, due diligence in IT purchasing is getting 3-4 quotes on the same MS SW. Your point about the "intrinsically conservative" buying habits are VERY well taken.
I do not know how long you have been in the industry, but their used to be a saying in the early '80s, "No one ever got fired for buying IBM." I remember trying to convince my owner (without success) why it made more sense to buy a computer from this little clone-maker named Compaq. This attitude still exists, and perhaps it always will. But, I remember when the original MacIntosh was introduced. I marveled at the interface. But, it could not make me any money. It did not run the popular business SW of the time. But, I am a firm believer that if Apple had gone to Ashton-Tate, Lotus Development and a few others, and had ported those apps, it would be a different world today.
How much impact Apple can make in the corporate world is anyones guess. I do know that many of the obstacles they once faced have been resolved. You can run your business on a Mac. But, will people want to? That is the question. But, you can get an unlimited liscense for OSX Server for $999. Compare that to Win 2003 Enterprise unlimited! And, there are many OSX installations out there, including several of the world's most powerful systems. The next few years should be interesting!
