Why wasn't this predicted 5 years ago? 6

[Deadline]

Why wasn't this this slowdown that prevails in IT industry currently predicted few years ago ? What made IT industry bomb ?

WHo spoiled all the fun ? Was it the Venture Capitalists who funded wrong business models or is the 'DotCom'mers or else who ?

Why aren't we getting more projects as we did a couple of years ago?

Thank you...
RR

 

[gunthnp]

It was perdicted like 3 times in 90's but people still put money in the market the abilty for a singal person to trade so cheaply made the "house wife day trader".

With a lot of people who new little to nothing of how markets worked but heard dot com was the way to go, added a lot of money to the market and with most of it being missed place. they stayed away from the bule chip stocks and bought PETs.com

After some of the dot coms stared to go under it scared a lot of people out of the market (at the time things are cheap and they should buy) and a day trader went back to being a house wife so now there is a lot less money moving around so every one gets hurt. So long and thanks for all the fish.

 

[Deadline]

That was written with insight. Thank you gunthnp. More such thoughts welcome....


Thank you...
RR

 

[MasterRacker]

As gunthnp stated, part of the problem is too many clueless people able to directly trade stock which has destabalized the market.

Also, the "fun" never have happened in the first place. None of the dot-coms should have hit the valuations they did. The problem is that even trained analysts who should have known better bought into the "Internet is everything" hype. The sad truth is that the Internet is a different transport and/or communications method and nothing more. Internet-enabling a business can create some efficiencies but it does not automatically turn a business into a world killer. A stupid business idea is still stupid after adding the Internet.

The bottom line is if you don't have a product or service someone wants to buy you don't have a viable business.
Jeff

I haven't lost my mind - I know it's backed up on tape somewhere ....

 

[sleew]

Yes, i agree with all posts but what i dont understand is what really happend with dotnet technology?I know Microsoft is allways "pumping" thinks so they start to be valued more than they really worth,but i was on "Sinergija",presentation of .NET and whole idea sounds really great to me,XML should be supported just like web services, like some Polish sad:"I want my bulb to notify me day before it dies".What jammed thinks? Sleew
Compaq & Microsoft TS
sleew@infosky.net

 

[iza]

stupid people invested money because they thought that even a bad idea could make good money - as it was "on the internet". They just forgot that a bad idea is bad !!
i remember someone putting about 30 millions of euro in a company which only purpose was to set up a web site to sell things like spoons - things you can't even sell ringing to every door !! ------
please review FAQ183-874 - this will help you to get the best out of tt
[ "you" is not someone in particular - don't take it too personnal ]

 

[gunthnp]

well what happened is first in the US it was shown that a lot of the .com where going to go under in a few month or weeks and the same people the thought a web site selling spoons is a good idea got scared and pulled out all of there money out of .com
but they keeped a lot in IT and good bussness like cisco, SUN , and IBM at a time when they work making money

then over in California they did not make enough power plants so prices go up (WAYUP!) and now companys in calfiona have to pay more and when people are buying less and and after that I don't know how all the dominos fell but thats the start less money less people buy hardware because power shortage in California it would not have mattered but so many tech bussness are there in Calf that hurt the hole buiness gunthnp
Have you ever woken up and realized you where not alive.

 

[Niv3k]

As I recall, in December of '97, Amazon.com and a few other established, publicly-owned (stock market) internet companies had much better than expected internet sales. It was a quite phenomenom (internet) that nobody heard of (except tekkies, geeks, and AOL-users) until these companies went and said "Hey! We made money!" Christmas sales. Go figure. Everyone makes money at Christmas except parents. People went on some wild drive, then, because these companies that they never heard of were making money. And they wanted some.

Yes, IMHO it was those surprise better-than-hoped for Christmas sales that started the "INTERNET .COM BUY BUY BUY" crap. I even bought my (now ex)wife a deck of Tarot cards on-line for Christmas of that year. That was my first internet purchase, and I didn't buy anything else for about 2 years from any internet company.

But greed and stupidity lost a lot of people a lot of money and I'm happy, still putting money in my boring savings account, still working a boring job, and am perfectly stable and happy for it.

Now I'm buying red-hat, at $3.50 a share? vs $180? Amazon, back to it's original 20$-ish after peaking near $200, etc... Now they will make normal profits. And I will make real money. Slowly, not overnight. But real tangible money. It took MS how many YEARS to hit any real value??? And these peaople thought UselessCrap.com was going to make a million dollars a day in one night?

Kevin

 

[pivan]

IMHO...the market is weeding out its week sisters. Darwin at its best. Some of the Dot Com ideas were great, but no market or chance for revenue. Some were just lane.

BtoB had the most business potential and the technology advance at a far greater rate then the business' ability to absorb it, intergrate it, and deploy it. We have had our day, I don't think we will ever see as frenzied a sector as IT during the last 5-8 years.

In the work place only the strong will survive as well. Keep getting educated, position yourself to learn both hard and soft skills, combine techno speak with bizspeak.

More so then ever to maintain and excell you cannot afford to slow down and be allow yourself to become stupid. Keep reading, learning and taking classes. Getyour certs, these are like Boy Scout Merit badges and will be used to separate
the next level of the food chain.

Sometimes I feel like a technical gunslinger. Alway practicing and honing my skills to be better then the next or get shot down.
Thank God its only sometimes...though.

pivan In not now, when?
If not here, where?
If not us, who?

Just do it!!

 

[MasterRacker]

Pivan brings up some very good points that reach back to the beginning of this thread. 2-3 years ago it certainly was "fun". Anyone who could sling a little HTML could get a very well paying job since a flashy website was essential for Internet presence and Internet presence was everything. Then reality came crashing down and suddenly you once again needed a worthwhile product and/or service and a good business model. This has trickled into the employment arena in that single skilled techies no longer command a premium.

There's still a market for specialists but even "specialists" need to have multiple skills with multiple technologies. And even specialists have to have some business sense. You can no longer say something like "I'm a programmer and all I want to do is write code." The programs have no purpose unless they provide a specific value to the business.

To go one step further, to really build a solid business you need generalists to guide the specialists. The generalists need to be technically proficient but they also need to be business savvy and they also need to have good people skills in order to both manage the specialists and get buy in from the non-technical business managers.

As pivan said, learn everything you can in every area you can. There is no more easy street - to get ahead, you're going to need it all.
Jeff

I haven't lost my mind - I know it's backed up on tape somewhere ....

 

[pl12987]

The markets are a bunch of drooling chimpanzees who could not invest their way out of a paper bag. They are loathe to admit this, however, and therefore go on talk shows and try to sound intelligent. They don't want to admit they got starry eyed about technologies they don't understand. So after all these stocks and IPOs took off with no signs of profit, people finally started asking "when is the bubble going to burst?" That became cool, and people kept saying "when is the bubble going to burst?" over and over until they finally MADE it burst.

Meanwhile, Amazon and a few others may in fact be able to be profitable someday, but now the street is on the other end of the scale, declaring the Internet useless. Neither extreme is true, but you have to actually know what you are talking about in order to invest wisely. And if you are a drooling chimpanzee, you probably don't even read the prospectus.

And that is how the bear market happened.

Jeff E