where is it going 8

[georgebitar]

Microsoft's technical guru Nathan Myhrvold has predicted that its Windows operating system will almost be consigned to history within five years.



Nathan Myhrvold talking on Radio 4's In Business
Windows is installed on more than 90% of the world's personal computers. Its dominant position has led to the US Justice Department's anti-monopoly case, accusing Microsoft of using the operating system to gain a similar stranglehold on the Internet.

But the company's chief technology officer told BBC Radio 4's In Business programme that every five years there is a major revolution in the computer business.

"It's virtually certain Windows will be superseded by something else within the next five years," he said.

"In fact, something may already exist, so today the seeds of the next contender to Windows - maybe its Linux, maybe it's Netscape Navigator, they've had a plan to turn that into an operating system, maybe it's the Java operating system. The seeds of the next revolution may be there now.

"Historically we know that many more seeds are planted than sprout into a successor but sometime in the next five years the successor to Windows will come about. We, of course, at Microsoft, hope that we're behind that. But if we don't work very hard, someone else will be."



Thanks,
George Bitar

 

[ecobb]

Consumers AREN'T being given a choice; Microsoft is pushing Vista (and DRM) right down our throats.

Yep, a week or so ago I was looking at laptops on Dell's website, and (even thought I didn't spend much time looking extensively) I didn't find anything that had XP as an option for an OS, it was all Vista.

But you have to wonder, is it ALL Microsoft, or do Dell, HP, Gateway, etc..., have a say so in what goes on their computers? Just curious.

Hope This Helps!

ECAR
ECAR Technologies

http://www.ecartech.com

"My work is a game, a very serious game." - M.C. Escher

 

[Grenage]

You can buy an HP computer with Linux on... There's always Mac, too.

Carlsberg don't run I.T departments, but if they did they'd probably be more fun.

 

[AlexCuse]

I'd guess, after viewing some of willif's postings in other areas that (s)he's not a native English speaker.

Willif is in fact a native English speaker, she just speaks English er- Welsh? English.

I think what she meant was (Windows will be replaced) by a Mac, lads. Presumably a Mac OS. She could be eating cheese lattices again and getting all loopy though ;-)

I got my first taste of Vista the other day, and have to say I was very underwhelmed. It sure did look purty, but I don't even use XP's purti-ness (I'm stuck on the windows 98 look, never really came around to XP). I still can't bring myself to buy a mac, I jut hope that a stripped down version of Vista's successor will be available for someone like me. If I wanted something to look pretty I would just buy a TV. Like in those mac commercials, I only want my PC to be used for serious business. And tek-tips ;-)

Ignorance of certain subjects is a great part of wisdom

 

[ecobb]

...but I don't even use XP's purti-ness (I'm stuck on the windows 98 look, never really came around to XP)

Amen, brother! I hate the "cartoonish" look of XP, I refuse to use it! I wouldn't even discuss upgrading to XP until I found out it had a "classic look" mode to it.

Hope This Helps!

ECAR
ECAR Technologies

http://www.ecartech.com

"My work is a game, a very serious game." - M.C. Escher

 

[kHz]

XP doesn't have a "cartoonish" look. I have referred to it as the Playskool look since it appeared!

 

[AlexCuse]

Hehe Fisher-Price 'My First OS'

Ignorance of certain subjects is a great part of wisdom

 

[Welshbird]

Actually English is my second language with Welsh being my first language.

And yep it was a bad typo!

Mac users seem to me to fit into two distinct groups - techie's who love the fact that they don't have to be techie at all because "It just works!" and those who love the fact that when they get in under the bonnet it's UNIX.

Non-Mac users all seem to me to be people who simply haven't tried it yet. I was one of those for a very long time, until I borrowed a Mac for an hour one morning. I ordered one that afternoon and I cannot imagine using MS at home ever again.

I use XP at work as that is the companies decision so I must follow it.

The bottom line is this: I can do exactly the same thing on either machine. I just enjoy using my Mac, whereas I get by (not buy!) using Windows.

Fee

The question should be [red]Is it worth trying to do?[/red] not [blue] Can it be done?[/blue]

 

[Opieo]

@latest willif post:
"I can do exactly the same thing on either machine."
Are you an avid video gamer, and is there some form of program that makes all games play on the Mac just fine?
If so, I will gladly switch now.
But alas, as stated somewhere, be it this thread or another, I am an avid gamer, and too many companies (read, all but a very select few) make their games for Windows only.

~
Give a man some fire, he will be warm for a day, Set a man on fire, he will be warm for the rest of his life.

 

[mmorancbt]

The reason that Windows WILL NOT be superceded is that its power is not due to monopoly and not based on gamers or passionate users. It is based on business integration needs and people don't want to use two different operating systems (those at home and those at work).

For all the posturing of the linux, mac, and other crowds, Microsoft software has revolutionized business automation for the better. Yes, for the better!

I am technology agnostic - I don't have a socio-political axe to grind and have virtually no vested interest in the success or failure of x versus y technology. I have only one focus and need - technology that allows me to create workflow automation across my client's system.

By far, the simplest, fastest, most universally integrated pieces of software to do this is Microsoft's. I can, from within any piece of MS software, connect to virtually any other database, web service, or other system and automate workflow seamlessly.

With the dozens of powerful scripting tools, .NET web services, and other integration tools available, Microsoft will not be knocked off the business mountain easily.

Of course, those easily integrated tools lend themselves to the big "security" knock. As soon as other systems begin providing that level of integrated automation (Open Office for instance) with other systems - security holes will spring up there too.

Frothy-mouthed college students eventually become business people and have families. The need to earn a living and become a responsible member of society is the death nell for Linux as a pervasive desktop replacement.

I will have those who disagree and they will point to news stories touting how x agency is moving to Linux or some other open source option. Look very closely at those reports. What is seldom reported is the hue and cry for executive users who have quickly altered that decision after a costly implementation because the executive team wants - in the final analysis - a comfortable OS. Comfortable is standardized and familiar - and that means Windows.

And while we all know - being technology professionals - that executives are all pointy-haired know-nothings (amazing that they got into those roles), lacking both intelligence and scruples, that fact is, they write the checks.

Matthew Moran (career blog and podcast below)
Career Advice with Attitude for the IT Pro

http://blogs.ittoolbox.com/pm/career

 

[SQLDenis]

>>Microsoft's technical guru Nathan Myhrvold has predicted that its Windows operating system will almost be consigned to history within five years.

Sure what you will have is a media center type device that will let you connect to the internet, warmp up your meal in your microwave while you are commuting home, watch tv, listen to music, play games etc etc etc

will it be 5 years I doubt it, hey I still get hits from 95 and occasional 3.1 machines

Denis The SQL Menace
--------------------
SQL Server Code,Tips and Tricks, Performance Tuning
Google Interview Questions

 

[philhege]

At home, I had a 95 box that just hit the recycle yard after 11 years of service. While it lived, it worked for me.

At work, we have a 3.1 box running an automated overhead crane. What works, works.

The MRP system is COBOL, people, COBOL. What works, works.

Bleeding edge doesn't always put food on the table. Open source doesn't necessarily save your bacon.

What works, works. You stick with what works. You discard what doesn't.

On a larger stage, what we're witnessing is the ascendance of interoperability. How is it that you get disparate OSes and applications to play nice together? Do you perform double-jointed contortionist backbends to allow application B to use application A's data? Then it's time to optimize interoperability. The many-to-many relationship that we so cherish in our normalizations should extend to our applications. How do they relate? Do they relate at all?

Acch. Somebody kick the soapbox. I'm off to look for lyrics and charts to 40's torch songs.

 

[pmonett]

Given the great reluctance with which the industry is looking at upgrading to Vista, the remarks about business integration being the key to OS longevity do ring a bell.

Besides, chucking out the tens of thousands of pre-Vista software is not going to happen overnight. And the fact that Vista Office is not being viewed as a reason to go for the OS is rather damning for the future of said OS.

However, I must disagree with one person who stated that people want at home the same OS they have in the office. I think that is only because most people only know Windows, so what choice do they really have ?

For the people who know more, there is choice. I would quite happily live at home without Windows, but I cannot live without games. And the games that I am interested in are all on Windows. So I have Windows at home.

But give me the same games on Linux and watch Windows go out the (ahem) window overnight.

Pascal.


I've got nothing to hide, and I'd very much like to keep that away from prying eyes.

 

[Sympology]

We are just moving off one of out NT4 devices that controls our phone system in a call centre. Not becuause it doesn't work, but because the entire phone system is being replaced. It has run no a/v, no a/s, no firewall. Crashed about 10 times in 7 years. Fact is, the software was well written, implement well and did it's job well. It's just out of date and can't cope with new demands.
Vista won't have a huge uptake for about a year, not because of bugs, flaws or whatever, just a simple case of people want new machines and these will come with a new OS. I have an Athlon 1.8 with 768mb RAM. Runs XP just fine, won't run Vista very well, so I won't upgrade.
I don't play games, don't use super intensive programs often and watch films on my DVD player, not a pc.
If i do want to run something that's ging to take a lot of time, I make a cup of tea or pop out while it does it, no loss, I really don't care if xyz take 10 seconds longer at home.
At work is a different matter. I curse if my email takes a minute to open for soe reason or other.
Vista will take of, but spread out over time.

Only the truly stupid believe they know everything.
Stu.. 2004

 

[jimbojimbo]

I have to agree with the author. The Windows OS will be history shortly. I won't say 5 years. It may be 3 or it may be 10. It really depends on Microsoft. Looking at it from various perspectives, there are numerous undelying reasons. First off, consumer revolution. Linux may not have taken the world by storm yet but it is close. Here in the U.S. we have a slightly skewed view as compared to the rest of the world. Going out and spending a couple hundred bucks for an OS is not outrageous. Most of the world population does not have this option. So the althernative is a free OS. Linux fits that model. Oh yes, you can get a version from one of the major distribution vendors with support and all the bells and whistles but at the same time, you can build your own at no cost. This may be one of the driving factors in Microsofts multi-version multi-price option with Vista.

The second part of the equation is that Microsoft is falling behind. They have never been good at leading from a technology standpoint. What they have done well is leverage technology for profit. Most leading/bleeding edge technology is being developed on Linux or some other Unix derivative. Microsoft has to then convert it to Windows, break it so that it is proprietary, and get it out the door. In the meantime, open source has jumped another 3 feet ahead. I would really like to know exactly how much open source microsoft currently uses.

Microsoft is already becoming more of a "unix" operating system. They are not doing very well at it but that is another story. From .NET to Unix Services for Windows, Microsoft has been slowly migrating. Why migrate at all. Why not embrace Linux/Unix and make the great leap? Vista. I believe that this will be Microsoft's last internal OS. The viability of Linux will undermine any efforts by Microsoft to continue down the Vista highway. From personal experience, I am already 50/50 Windows/Linux. There are only a couple of reasons I keep windows at all.

1. Work requires it.
2. Visio - although that may only be for another year or two.
3. I have legacy applications that I haven't converted to Java yet.

Why am I moving to Linux

1. Great cost model
2. I can do anything I want with it from modifying the kernel to pushing out terminal services without worrying about licensing costs.
3. Performance. Yes, I have managed to do something very stupid and crash my Linux boxes. With windows I don't have to do anything. Windows has gotten better but still are not as solid as Linux.
4. Digital Rights Mangement. Leave it to the MP3 players.
5. Applications. I can get almost anything I want or need at little or no cost.
6. I'm not a gamer. Nothing wrong with being a gamer but I'm not locked in by games to any particular platform.
7. I now have support for my HP printers.
8. Samba. Play nice and share.
9. Mozilla Firefox. Love the little fox. Hate Explorer 7.
10. pgAdmin. This is probably why Microsoft released the desktop version of SQL with a graphical interface instead of just the same old MSDE.
11. Who wants to pay for SIP or for connectivity to other users in the IM world?

With Liux, Open Office/Star Office, postgresql/MySQL, apache/tomcat, JAVA, Asterisk, and X/Gnome there is very little incentive for me to keep Windows. It should be noted here that I am a technical user. I agree that only recently has Linux become a viable option for the consumer. Ever try to manually alter the configuration file for X? Not exactly fun and definitely not easy. It has taken several years for the Graphical Interface to catch up on Linux.

Linux has reached critical mass and I think Microsoft recognizes it.

James Middleton



James Middleton
ACSCI/ACSCD/MCSE
Xeta Technologies
jim.middleton@xeta.com

 

[Sympology]

Jim, have to agree and disagree on some fronts:

"Digital Rights Mangement. Leave it to the MP3 players"
This is a Hollywood thing. It may yet affect Linux, it may be dropped altogher. It's in Windows but it is up to the DVD makers if they use it. HD DVD's may not play at full res on PC's without DRM, so Linux may actually fall behind in this area.

"Mozilla Firefox. Love the little fox. Hate Explorer 7"
Sooo use Firefox on Windows

"Who wants to pay for SIP or for connectivity to other users in the IM world?"
There are loads of freeware out there for Windows, OnDo SIP server anyone?

"I now have support for my HP printers."
And IBM, Fujitsu, Oky, Lexmark etc etc? May be good for you but the rest of the world?

Windows may not be around in the format we know in 10 years, but I'm sure it'll be still around.


Only the truly stupid believe they know everything.
Stu.. 2004

 

[SQLDenis]

>>Going out and spending a couple hundred bucks for an OS is not outrageous.

Most people when they buy a PC get a preinstalled OS. people who upgrade their OS are not your mon/pop type of people
All the thinks that you listed in "Why am I moving to Linux" are valid for a programmer/geek.
The mainstream person doesn't care about that, they want to buy a PC plug it in and surf the internet, print pages and have a webcarm that works and play a game here and there. I don't know if you are a parent or not but have you ever tried to buy a kids game for Linux?

Believe it or not on the business side FoxPro is still alive (And I wish it would day any day now) together with Excel (with custom built macros) and of course power point
Linux on the server yes....on the desktop...not any time soon

Denis The SQL Menace
--------------------
SQL Server Code,Tips and Tricks, Performance Tuning
Google Interview Questions

 

[Grenage]

Although you could argue that Unix would be a better bet, for the servers....

Linux will cover pretty much all users, with the exception of Gamers (well I can only think of one game I wanted to play, that came out on Linux), people new to computers (I don't personally believe this) and lastly, businesses who are 'locked' into Windows applications.

People don't use Linux because they don't want to have to learn something new. That's not wrong, that's their choice.

Carlsberg don't run I.T departments, but if they did they'd probably be more fun.

 

[monkeylizard]

It's not a choice when the major manufacturers only sell new PCs with Windows and no other option. Few people have the knowledge to replce their OS.

From the manufacturer's side, why would you not offer a competing OS and software? It adds cost to your assmebly process through training, but potentially off-sets that (and maybe more) by offering a free open source OS with free office type products. Dell does get a steep discount from MS on Windows, Works, Office, etc, but it's still not free.

The only reason I can think of short of an illegal agreement between mfgs and MS is that there's too little measurable demand.

Monkeylizard
Sometimes just a few hours of trial and error debugging can save minutes of reading manuals.

 

[SQLDenis]

It is a support issue, DELL/HP etc etc get Windows OEM versions (that are cheap(er)) but they have provide support for the machines. You don't call Microsoft for that
Let's say they offer Linux bla version and a regular user has a problem with some kind of driver. can you imagine the support headache this might be for these companies?


Denis The SQL Menace
--------------------
SQL Server Code,Tips and Tricks, Performance Tuning
Google Interview Questions

 

[Sympology]

Also why do you think Intel is far bigger than AMD? For a long, until recently, Intel processors lagged behind AMD's but people know the name, they know the product and the know the marketing!

Imagine a shop.

Hello Sir, would you like Windows Vista or Linux on your new pc?

What's Linux?

It's an operating system, bit like windows?

So can I run Windows programs on it?

In a fashion, yes?

In a fashion?

Well you'll need to install xyz?

Then can I run Windows programs?

Some you can?

Oh?

What about games for the kids?

No?

Oh?

So can I put thing like sound cards in?

Maybe.

Maybe?

Some may work, other may if you can find the drivers on the web that someone knocked up in the back bedroom, or maybe not at all.

Ok you've sold it to me. Vista please.



Only the truly stupid believe they know everything.
Stu.. 2004