where is it going 8

[georgebitar]

Microsoft's technical guru Nathan Myhrvold has predicted that its Windows operating system will almost be consigned to history within five years.



Nathan Myhrvold talking on Radio 4's In Business
Windows is installed on more than 90% of the world's personal computers. Its dominant position has led to the US Justice Department's anti-monopoly case, accusing Microsoft of using the operating system to gain a similar stranglehold on the Internet.

But the company's chief technology officer told BBC Radio 4's In Business programme that every five years there is a major revolution in the computer business.

"It's virtually certain Windows will be superseded by something else within the next five years," he said.

"In fact, something may already exist, so today the seeds of the next contender to Windows - maybe its Linux, maybe it's Netscape Navigator, they've had a plan to turn that into an operating system, maybe it's the Java operating system. The seeds of the next revolution may be there now.

"Historically we know that many more seeds are planted than sprout into a successor but sometime in the next five years the successor to Windows will come about. We, of course, at Microsoft, hope that we're behind that. But if we don't work very hard, someone else will be."



Thanks,
George Bitar

 

[Grenage]

It's all very well saying that "something will appear and supersede Windows", but it's not very likely in that space of time". It's also a bit of a stretch to say that a web browser is the base for any operating system. That said, looking at windows....

Carlsberg don't run I.T departments, but if they did they'd probably be more fun.

 

[Glenn9999]

If the monopoly hadn't been broken up back in the day, we'd still be staring at Standard Oil (nevermind that there's a cartel out there keeping 100 year old tech in our cars - that's about the only reason it could be that the internal combustion engine hasn't had any revolutionary changes). Or if AT&T hadn't been broken up we'd still be staring at land-lines that we'd be renting and 2400 baud modems.

A monopoly only as an incentive to make sure that no change happens. Microsoft will definitely fight to make sure that Windows will still be ubitquous in five years. Unless the US govt comes back with their anti-trust suit and do right with it.

 

[dilettante]

AT&T was a regulated monopoly, very different from the Standard Oil trust. For that matter AT&T is where we got C and Unix from. The AT&T breakup was more about increasing profitability for a few than it was about innovation or producing more value to consumers. The breakup is probably the reason why things like broadband penentration is so lousy in the U.S. compared with so many other nations.

I seriously doubt Windows is fading from importance in a 5 year timeframe. Those things mentioned (Java OS, Netscape OS, Linux) are already dead horses. Ok some might argue for Linux but seriously, how many years do we have to hear about that with no actual movement?

This doesn't mean Windows doesn't have its problems. I think Microsoft will replace Windows as such itself though. Most likely with a thin client to central server model of some sort with perpetually recurring fees. Wall Street vastly prefers this revenue stream model, based as it is on consumption and usage metering rather than consumer investment in "durable good" software purchased on a 3 to 7 year refresh cycle. Right now they see Windows as a car that doesn't need to buy gas every 3 days.

 

[johnherman]

If you think Windows will fade in 5 years, think about how long people have been saying that (choose) COBOL, Basic, mainframe, etc. are dying. And those are compute technologies.

Since the Windows PC is a consumer product, I's probably a better comparison to think about how long cassettes and VCR's have hung around since the invention of CD and DVD. But getting back to Windows, many people like one or more old computer games that would never be migrated/rewritten to the new OS. Nope, Windows is here for many, many years. Maybe not state of the art in five years (or even three), but definitely staying around.

-------------------------
The trouble with doing something right the first time is that nobody appreciates how difficult it was - Steven Wright

 

[pmonett]

Personally I very much doubt that Windows is going to disappear any time soon. There are much too many applications that ensure its continuity, be it business or personal.
That said, if there is any chance for Windows to be replaced by something else, I think Vista is just about the greatest reason for the competition to start dreaming. Many people are having trouble with it, and many hard-core gamers are fuming with rage at its poor performance. Microsoft has never given us such a weak reason to upgrade, nor such a rights-depriving platform.
In five years there's a good chance that either I'm still on XP, or I'll have finally switched to some flavor of Linux, but Vista will not be on my upgrade path before I have some option to remove all the DRM and privacy-fiddling stuff that it has.

Pascal.


I've got nothing to hide, and I'd very much like to keep that away from prying eyes.

 

[kHz]

My Dad bought a new computer on Jan 31 that has Vista installed and over the weekend I had the displeasure of using it. Vista is slow. He has 1GB of memory and the latest Intel chip and even if you open properties for a printer it starts clocking. Really, how much resources should it consume to open that?

Also his printer HP Deskjet 656 doesn't work with Vista but it works with XP. How many other pieces of software and hardware are going to be like that (works on XP but not Vista)?

 

[AlexCuse]

If anything is going to kill windows, I think that it will come from Microsoft itself. If they succeed in adding more 'features' to the point that windows OS becomes so miserable to use that average computer users feel the pain, then we might start seeing some movement in this direction. I truly hope that they learn from the uproar in the 'technical community' (so far I have not heard a single positive thing about vista, and I will probably never upgrade) and realize that if they keep putting unnecessary garbage into their OS that people will stop buying it.

Unfortunately, people probably will not stop buying it, they will just buy a new computer that used to be a high end gaming machine. This seems to be what they are counting on, which is not really fair. I think that if Sunoco came out with a new kind of gasoline that required everyone with a car made before 2004 to buy a new one, there would be much more resistance. Why does microsoft get the free pass? Is it because not enough people understand computers, or is it because they are convinced that all the new 'features' are in the name of security and will save them from identity theft?

Ignorance of certain subjects is a great part of wisdom

 

[Opieo]

I have heard one good thing about Vista, and that is its looks.
I also however know that there are simple little programs or plug-ins that will make XP look precisely like Vista, which kind of negates its only positive point.

As for removing the DRM from Vista, after reading the large article mentioned in the thread on Vista and DRM:

http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/vista_cost.html

It appears, and from what I have read everywhere else as well, that the DRM is built into the very center of Vista. It seems that it truly would be impossible to remove it completely.
And being an avid video gamer, I am truly upset that the hardware I will be purchasing will be footing an additional bill so M$ can attempt to control a market.
Hence I will never use or support anything Vista, ever.
Just my 2cents worth.

~
Give a man some fire, he will be warm for a day, Set a man on fire, he will be warm for the rest of his life.

 

[gbaughma]

Opieo:

That sounds quite a bit like my rant thread656-1316910

... right down to the tagline. ;-)



Just my 2¢
"Life gets mighty precious when there's less of it to waste." -Bonnie Raitt "Nick of Time"
--Greg

http://parallel.tzo.com

 

[Opieo]

Heh, that is funny.
My ideas mostly come from the link I posted, which I originally got to because it was posted in another thread here somewhere, maybe that one, and other stuff I have read coincides with that.
I see tons of people use the 2 cents worth bit all the time, but I rarely use it, I used it this time because it is technically off topic =P
As for sounding like your rant, I think a large part of that thread's topic was ranting about the DRM.
I just felt the need to spread the love, because I truly believe that is "where it is going", and I wanted to express where I won't be going >: )
I just feel such hatred to M$ now, its grown so much over the past year, as if there wasn't enough already.

I feel the need for this tagline this time:
If all the games I played, played just fine on Linux, I would be asking, "What's Windows?"

~
Give a man some fire, he will be warm for a day, Set a man on fire, he will be warm for the rest of his life.

 

[lgarner]

If all the games I played, played just fine on Linux, I would be asking, 'What's Windows?'"

And there's the key. Windows will be replaced when there is a viable replacement for it. I certainly won't "upgrade" to a system that allows me to do less than I can do now.

 

[pmonett]

Ditto for me. I'm a gamer, so it's Windows for me at home. The day Linux gives me the games I like, Windows will be out of my PCs so fast Bill won't have time to blink.
Somehow though, I am starting to feel a bit queasy with Vista. I don't like it, but MS doesn't care and doesn't even need to care since it'll be on a lot of computers in the next five years.
The game community can resist, and will do so successfully I believe - for a while. Then MS's market position will catch up, XP will be phased out on the developer's side, and it'll be tough carrots for me.
Just this morning I read a thread where someone posted something along the line of this : "MS forgot it's principal enemy : itself. WinXP Pro is the best MS OS bar none, and Vista cannot top it".
That rings very true, but Vista will prevail in the end, by sheer inertia if nothing else does it. And, when games will no longer be made to run on XP, and can no longer be run on XP, well I'm going to have to find something else for them.
Unless Vista can be hacked and all that DRM removed - but I'm not counting on it.

Pascal.


I've got nothing to hide, and I'd very much like to keep that away from prying eyes.

 

[Grenage]

And there's the key. Windows will be replaced when there is a viable replacement for it

Well, technically Linux can play games just fine, they just aren't written for it by many games designers. I don't wholly blame them, the amount of gamers using it is too small to make it very profitable.

Catch 22 situation really.

Carlsberg don't run I.T departments, but if they did they'd probably be more fun.

 

[Welshbird]

By a Mac lads. You know it makes sense!

Fee

The question should be [red]Is it worth trying to do?[/red] not [blue] Can it be done?[/blue]

 

[Grenage]

We shall never surrender!

Carlsberg don't run I.T departments, but if they did they'd probably be more fun.

 

[trollacious]

By a Mac lads. You know it makes sense!

Except in English the word is b[red]u[/red]y. Is this typical output from a Mac fanatic? Or are you saying we should give a Mac a by, meaning pass it by?

Lee

 

[Grenage]

If you've never made a typo, I'd be mighty surprised. /wink

Carlsberg don't run I.T departments, but if they did they'd probably be more fun.

 

[trollacious]

I see WAY too many spelling errors by techie types here in TT that are NOT typos. Since computer work generally demands exact spelling.


Lee

 

[gbaughma]

Back on topic. (OMG, Greg got back ON TOPIC????)

The sad part about it is, I just had my first support call from a Vista user. I didn't realize he was a vista user until a menu choice wasn't there that I was expecting. I said "Are you running XP?" He said "No, Vista." I think I shuddered a little, and he said "Boy...every tech I've talked to has responded like that. It wasn't my fault! I got a new laptop, and it came with Vista! I didn't have a choice!"

.... and that sums it up. Consumers AREN'T being given a choice; Microsoft is pushing Vista (and DRM) right down our throats.



Just my 2¢
"Life gets mighty precious when there's less of it to waste." -Bonnie Raitt "Nick of Time"
--Greg

http://parallel.tzo.com