The End of Microsoft and the PC as we know it ?? 4

[guestgulkan]

In all the threads about the future of IT and the PC, no-one has taken into account the Death/impending old age of Bill gates!!
In ten years Old Bill will be 56 and on the way out (physically & mentally).
Does the death of Bill spell the end of Microsoft and the PC OS empire.
Can we expect an internal M$ power struggle that will
cause it to self destruct??
The mind boggles! PC anarchy looms!

 

[svanels]

Have you ever received a complaint that the cup-holder of the pc broke off? The cd-drive !!! Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[guestgulkan]

ROTFLMAO - I had to read that 3 times before it registered.

 

[Grenage]

I'd take that drive back then, Most good CDROMs can hold a full cup of coffee almost indefinately

 

[heftyprawn]

I don't see why the loss of Bill Gates would be any problem for Microsoft, Ford and Disney to name but two still seem to be doing OK and they were much more strongly linked to their founders

 

[Craftor]

heftyprawn has a point. At least Microsoft is not named GatesSoft.

 

[rycamor]

OK, we are going off-topic here, but:

>Unless the linux operating system come "idiot proof" like
>windows, it will be running in the background in the
>server rooms, supported by techno geeks

HeeheeheeLoLLoL... (gasp...) Windows as a good example of an idiot-proof system!! I refer you to BEOS or Macintosh as the closest the world has come to idiot-proof.

I don't know where these people are, who have such seamless experiences with Windows, but I can almost guarantee you they are not the typical end-user. Not even the typical end-user on a corporate network with trained sysadmins.

Please read the following 3 articles, written by a newspaper reporter, about his experience using Windows on the corporate network. (These are from his personal blog)

http://www.lileks.com/bleats/archive/02/1002/100202.html#101002

(start at the 5th paragraph)

http://www.lileks.com/bleats/archive/02/1002/100203.html#102302

(start at the third paragraph)

http://www.lileks.com/bleats/archive/02/1102/110201.html#110702

(start at the 5th paragraph)

THIS IS THE TYPICAL PC USER EXPERIENCE.

His experience is typical of the resignation many people feel at the unpredictable and nonsensical things they have to deal with. "Resignation" is the correct word here. It's not that they think its the best choice; they have no choice. I firmly believe that the real reason Windows became so popular was not because of its user interface, or that "grandma" can install it (she can't). The real reason is because Windows made it easy for just about anyone to become a developer, or at least to think that they have become a developer. Microsoft had it right. Make a series of tools that pretend to make programming child's play. Who cares if these tools introduce all kinds of interdependency and versioning problems? Who cares if these tools produce programs with nowhere near the robustness of C, C++, TCL/Tk, etc... No, these problems don't hurt the developers at all. The developer gets a reduced product delivery time, and a radically inflated product support contract, just to keep the program running, and surviving through DLL hell.

Yes, Windows can run over 100,000 applications. So what. This is simply too much. There is so much junky software out in Windows-land that it is hard to find the decent stuff. I don't say this as a grouchy Unix guy. I have spent my time supporting Windows systems in small and medium-sized businesses, and my experience is consistently that Unix (FreeBSD or Linux) would be easier to support in almost every case, as long as the company wasn't limited to a Windows-only version of the software they depended on. Industry-specific software is the worst. I remember one insurance compay customer who had to run through the main CD install, and a whole tray of floppies containing patches and upgrades, every time she needed to install a new workstation, and if certain things weren't done in just the right order, kablooey!! With each new releas, invariably, something wouldn't work right, and we would have to wait on the phone for over an hour for someone to finally tell us to just reinstall it, and it should work. FInally we would discover that the documentation was wrong, or that some DLL was newer than expected, etc...

I'm not trying to say I would put Linux into the hands of the average Windows owner and say "go to town". (Actually, in some cases, it is almost this easy). My point is, the reason Windows is the de facto standard has almost nothing to do with useability, and more to do with Microsoft's timing on the market, and the plethora of 'fast-food' programming that they encouraged.

Yes, a lot of this is indicative of how much computing in general sucks, not just Windows computing, but it seems to me these end-user-land problems are always worse with Windows. -------------------------------------------

Big Brother: "War is Peace" -- Big Business: "Trust is Suspicion"
(

http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html)

 

[strongm]

>Who cares if these tools produce programs with nowhere near the robustness of C, C++

Neither C or C++ are inherently robust. Can't comment on TCL/Tk, never used them.

 

[rycamor]

Yes, they aren't inherently robust, but at least they don't fool marginally good developers into thinking the tools will compensate for their deficiencies. -------------------------------------------

Big Brother: "War is Peace" -- Big Business: "Trust is Suspicion"
(

http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html)

 

[svanels]

Windows is idiot proof, the vast majority (idiots) of the pc-users only use it for typing a letter, download MP3, reading e-mail and play pac-man

Even a spreadsheet is to technical to handle.

Programmers, in this forum there are a lot, most of the computers are not utilized to full productivity. Bill Gates (and others) brought the computer in reach of (almost) every one. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[Grenage]

Windows is not idiot proof, I've never seen an OS that is (although i haven't seen them all) and I doubt I will. It would be almost impossible to create an OS that was so simple to use without upsetting more experienced users by making it too simple. People get on with windows more because it's more familiar, althought Linux would be a little easier in fact to get to grips with.

 

[svanels]

Unfortunately most of the pc-users are not experienced. They want to go into the shop, buy a computer, bring it home, plug it in, and do miracles with it.
Reading?? No pc for dummies is to technical for them.

I have been engaged in some community projects in propagating pc use for older people, who never had the chance to be exposed to this kind of technology. Mostly of them retired, also had a granny of 75 years who loved the internet to get pictures of her grandchildren abroad. None of these people has a computer.

Comparing them to others who have computers at home or at work, the grannies are much more productive and inventive.

The coffee-cup citizen has a computer at home. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[rycamor]

>Windows is idiot proof, the vast majority (idiots) of the
>pc-users only use it for typing a letter, download MP3,
>reading e-mail and play pac-man

Those tasks are just as easily done in any OS.

If you read the articles I linked above, you will see that the problems encountered fool the experts as much as the end-user.

I'm not just talking about "Joe user" here. Windows still regularly causes me to shake my head, when I could solve the problem quite easily in a Unix environment. And this in spite of the fact that I was a Windows user before I was a Unix user. The fact is, too many things just don't make sense in the typical PC world.

There are two main problem domains: the corporate LAN, and the home user. They would each require different solutions. In the corporate LAN, I think Linux or FreeBSD is a perfect solution, if the software needs can be resolved. Make a thin-client network, where all users' desktops are managed centrally, and 99% of your problems go away. This is exactly the migration strategy of many corporations who have moved to Unix/Linux. I know that Windows Terminal Server allows you to (kind of) have a thin-client environment, but let's face it, Windows wasn't designed from the ground up to run on a network; X was.

Home users, on the other hand, can't use a thin-client OS. I personally think BEOS had the potential for being the best end-user OS out there. Things just made sense in that OS. It 's desktop wasn't overly decorated, like the Mac, but everything was designed from the ground up as a modern OS, with built-in, integrated capability for things like multimedia, etc... that are just add-ons in the other OSes. Top that with a journaling, metadata-storing filesystem, and you had ways to easily find the last Jpeg you stored, etc...

And from everything I have read, programming for the BE operating system was a pleasure for the same reasons: everything made sense; everything had its place. I know that no OS can be idiot-proof, but at least they can make sense.

I spent several years helping people troubleshoot and set up Windows. The number one experience I take away from it is: it is simply incredible the amount of trouble people go through just to continue using their Windows PCs. I honestly think people spend almost as much time fussing with their PCs as they do actually using them productively. It is an entrenched problem in our society now. I don't know what the solution is, but it seems to me that neither does Microsoft, in spite of all their expensive research projects. -------------------------------------------

Big Brother: "War is Peace" -- Big Business: "Trust is Suspicion"
(

http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html)

 

[svanels]

I was talking about the average Joe user, In a climate where companies are counting the pennies available for I.I. the invidual becomes an attractive target. Why does Dell go to the extreme in furnishing customized solutions? Imagine if they can put a foot into China!! Ten to fiftheen years from now, the children who are "playing" with computers at home will be the customers in the offices and industries.
If Linux want to survive(dominate) the market they'd better target the youth of today. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[rycamor]

I said I wasn't just talking about Joe user. That means I was talking about Joe user and the experts. My point was, the things you mention above that Joe user needs a computer for are just as easy with any OS: Windows, Mac, Linux, BEOS, etc...

Anyway, I am not really doing a Linux-vs-Windows thing here. (I usually use FreeBSD, anyway) I don't care which OS dominates. I just wish they would work better. And I wish software would work better, too.

This is a problem with the whole computing society (but more greatly seen with Microsoft products): instead of focusing constantly on adding features that people don't (want|need), and adding all kinds of visual fluff in the process, developers should focus more on software quality and durability. But, I know this is just a dream in the corporate world. It's like the automobile industry: build a better car, and your customer won't have to come back to you so often. So they build a car that is obsolete in 5 years.

This is why I think there is promise in the open source world. Open source moves from a basis of (want|need), and is driven as much by the users as by the developers. There is no downside for open source developers to make a product as robust as possible, because they want the product for their own needs, not just to sell as many units as possible to users. And they don't have to adhere to any deadlines. -------------------------------------------

Big Brother: "War is Peace" -- Big Business: "Trust is Suspicion"
(

http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html)

 

[CajunCenturion]

Microsoft did not create the PC, but rather has built itself on marketing products based on the use of a PC.

What will cause the end of Microsoft would be its inability to adapt to changes in the landscape. When the PC, as we know it today, is rendered obsolete by some new type of personal computing device, then all software based on the traditional PC will also become obsolete. Companies which are dependant on the traditional PC, who are unable to adapt to the new technology will be the ones that fade into the sunset. So if MS is unable to adapt, that will be the beginning of the end of MS. Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

 

[CajunCenturion]

With respect to Microsoft and its adaptability, the following article is a good read:

http://www.infoworld.com/articles/hn/xml/02/11/07/021107hnopensource2.xml?1108fram

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

 

[rycamor]

And, John Dvorak has a couple other good articles WRT the same thing here:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,3959,38106,00.asp

("Security Month" at Microsoft)

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,3959,22601,00.asp

(Microsoft, please stay in your niche) -------------------------------------------

Big Brother: "War is Peace" -- Big Business: "Trust is Suspicion"
(

http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html)

 

[Tarwn]

"Your average rock is five times more charismatic than Bill Gates. " - sleipner I haven't laughed that hard in a while, took me completely by surprise

Back to the point, sleipner knows I generally try to stand up for Microsoft, not necessarally because I like them more or because I think they are better, just because when sleipner starts making anti-MS points they're generally pretty good.

Concerning adaptability:
No programmer wants to sit down with all their free time these days and wite a whole operating system (ok, few do ), but Open Source gives them the ability to change functionality that they don't like, or add it where it's lacking. This is the real power behind it. Want a better firewall? Go for it, use all the same libraries the OS uses, feel free. Or download one someone else has written and edit it to your specifications.
Handhelds started running windows, not to much later someone prted linux to them. I noticed recently that one large computer retailer was openly offering customers a choice between windows and lindows. Sorry I can't remember which one.
If I had a second machine it would be linux, the third would be Beos. The only reason the first (not counting the laptop) is Windows is for work reasons.

I don't think MS is going anywhere for quite a while. They are taking the intitiative to get schools more hooked on their technologies and thus turn out MS users. It's large company vs loose knit community based on free opinion. I don't think it will die all together in the next 30 years, but I think they will find a way to adapt.

Sidenote: A certain university I used to go to just got a MS Exchange server, when they (the ITSD dept) found out several of the computer science professors had set up a linux box as an internal mail server and were importing the mail from the exchange server they got extremely nervous and tried to make the university pass a rule down about it.

-Tarwn --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
For my next trick I will pull a hat out of a rabbit (if you think thats bad you should see how the pigeon feels...)

 

[guestgulkan]

What Microsoft technologies ??

Microsoft has what I call the 'Borg' mentality.

"Why bother developing your own stuff when you
can simply rip off other peoples work/ideas"