The End of Microsoft and the PC as we know it ?? 4

[guestgulkan]

In all the threads about the future of IT and the PC, no-one has taken into account the Death/impending old age of Bill gates!!
In ten years Old Bill will be 56 and on the way out (physically & mentally).
Does the death of Bill spell the end of Microsoft and the PC OS empire.
Can we expect an internal M$ power struggle that will
cause it to self destruct??
The mind boggles! PC anarchy looms!

 

[sleipnir214]

I don't think it will take 10 years. Mi¢ro$oft is so big that it is nearly completely out of touch with their customers -- as this whole "annual upgrade fee" thing indicates. Couple that with their draconian licensing policies, and they'll be losing customers in droves.

The Gartner Group issued a survey last week where they conclude that by 2006, Linux will be the primary server operating system. ______________________________________________________________________
TANSTAAFL!

 

[xutopia]

Many people keep running their business till they are 65 or more.

But I don't think MS needs Billy to keep it running. It's a nicely oiled machine now that has two big thing to worry about. Open Source Free software and Macintosh! Gary

http://www.xutopia.com

Haran

 

[sleipnir214]

I think Mi¢ro$oft needs to worry about its own hubris more than the Mac. No offense to the Macintosh -- it's a great platform, especially since Apple moved the OS core to BSD. It's just that Mi¢ro$oft is a much bigger enemy to Mi¢ro$oft than Apple is. ______________________________________________________________________
TANSTAAFL!

 

[rycamor]

>>In ten years Old Bill will be 56 and on the way out (physically & mentally).

LoL!! What, are you fifteen or something? Why on earth would you think someone is "on the way out" physically and mentally (the "mentally" part really kills me) just because of being in late middle age? Especially in these days, where old age is more like 80 and up. Remember, Bill Gates has access to... oh, just about the best health care and advice money can buy. And in some societies, 56 would be regarded as still too young to have true wisdom.

Actually, in many types of businesses, a CEO of an age like 56 would be regarded as finally having the wisdom and experience to truly run a company. It's another example of how the tech industry is so skewed, sometimes seeming like an industry run by immature teenagers. Look at all the cocky quotes you can get from the guys who run Sun, Oracle, Apple, you-name it.

I won't be 56 for another 20 years, but my father, who is now in his mid-60s, runs his own small business installing satellite dishes, which requires all kinds of strenuous climbing, requires the mental acuity to absorb new technologies quickly, and the drive to handle his own sales, bookkeeping, etc... And, during the past few years, he has learned from me how to use computers, and even how to by the raw hardware and build his own. Oh, and he also manages to have conversations without drooling. (Actually, he is one of the most intelligent, hard-working men I know).

My grandfather ran his business until he was well into his 70s, I believe, and really only left it because he didn't want to be in the way of my aunt and uncle who took over the business.

Yeesh... kids. Life may be short, but don't make it any shorter than it has to be ;-). -------------------------------------------

Big Brother: "War is Peace" -- Big Business: "Trust is Suspicion"
(

http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html)

 

[guestgulkan]

Kid indeed! I'm 42 tomorrow.

But I think thathe Microsoft and Bill Gates are used to mean one and the same thing by the vast majority of the general public.

What percentage of Jone Does/Joe Bloogs knows the names of the chairman of IBM, Intel, Sun or any of the industry's other major players?

The entire Microsoft empire thing is shouldered by Bill Gates. In this situation I think when the front man loses it (or dies) the company dies with him.

Many a great company has faded because some old fart doesn't realise when it's time to go and hand over the reins of power to a younger fitter man.

 

[svanels]

If you look at the huge size of Microsoft don't you think they have some structure, career planning, human resoource dept, strategic planning etc.? What about things like mision and vision
In the Industry there is a saying "one monkey don't stop no show" Micro$oft is not a father and son business, run from an attic or garage.

Bill Gates takes all the attention, but it is his staff doing all the work.

Big companies are run by old people, not teenagers. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[rycamor]

Sorry to question your venerable years, guestgulkan.

Anyway, Bill Gates hardly did this all by himself. Even if he were to die tomorrow, the company would be the same as ever. Actually, I suspect Steve Ballmer might be a better barometer of current Microsoft anyway. Gates himself actually retired as president, (this year? last year?) leaving Ballmer as the main figurehead. But there's plenty more of the same ilk. Gates, Ballmer and Co. have managed to gather a large entourage of like-minded business managers who will doubtless keep marching to the same drummer. Not that I care, as I stopped marching to that drummer years ago ;-).

So, no. I don't foresee PC anarchy. I do foresee a much greater variety of choices available, compared to the limited choices of ten years ago. As much as I dislike Microsoft's software, I think Microsoft's main business talent has been that of reinventing itself as the industry changes. As more and more operating system and hardware choices become available, you can already see the writing on the wall, which is why Microsoft is betting everything on .NET, which can theoretically run on any hardware, and even any OS.

But I think the PC will be with us for a long time, in one form or another. It is just too convenient to have a large screen and a way to enter information quickly. Handheld computing still sucks, voice computing sucks even more... 3D glasses with virtual reality interfaces suck, etc...

50 years ago people thought we would no longer have automobiles by the 21st Century, and that we would all be wearing disposable jumpsuits, and books on paper would be a forgotten relic. None of that has occurred. Some things just make sense, so people don't see the sense in replacing them. -------------------------------------------

Big Brother: "War is Peace" -- Big Business: "Trust is Suspicion"
(

http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html)

 

[Craftor]

In all honesty, in addition to Bill Gates being the person who started MS and had the vision, he's still the "figurehead". And I don't mean he's sitting around doing nothing. But who do you think of when someone says Bill Gates? Who's the first person who comes to mind when someone speaks of Microsoft? The two have become interchangable. Just as 'old' ;-) Bill branded MS as his own - Bill is MS's brand!

I don't think MS will stop operating when he goes - whether it be by retirement or whatever - I only hope that they have the sense to do some sort of 'inheritance' plan to get the next man out there.

I pretty much reckon the next person won't have the presence or charisma (and yes he does have some) of Bill - maybe that will finally prompt them to look to their customers' interest first....

Craftor

 

[xutopia]

most of the charisma we talk about with Bill is fear cause we don't really know the guy. We saw him on rare occasions to demonstrate products but that is it. Gary

http://www.xutopia.com

Haran

 

[svanels]

Fear about Bill Gates? Maybe the competitors? I do not think that the milions of microsoft users are using the products because somebody with a big stick behind them, influenced their choice. Although I am not a micro$oft fan, we must admit that he have set the standards. He got charisma, when Bill speaks, the world listen. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[Grenage]

The only thing that's going to stop Microsoft being as big as it is, will be consumers using alternative software. Be a long long time before that happens and by then MS will have roots in other market areas.

 

[xutopia]

well consider that MS now owns a big part of NBC! I think they can influence the states as well as the politicians to make sure than won't happen!

I think the rest of the world will move first and then the US will be stuck with its biggest poison ever. Gary

http://www.xutopia.com

Haran

 

[SteveTheGeek]

svanels, the world doesn't listen to Bill because of his charisma, they listen to him because of his bank account balance and his leadership of the world's most influential software company. Steve Jobs has about thirty-eight times more charisma than BillG, and look where he is? What Bill DOES have in spades is business acumen, and while and Steve Ballmer will continue to display that, it is unfortunately M$' legal and marketing teams that will allow M$ to continue dominating or not.
-Steve

 

[Grenage]

Indeed, they listen because whatever he says is the next big thing generally turns out to be the next big thing, especially when everyone uses his software.

 

[butchrecon]

the PC and Microsoft wont be vanishing anytime soon. MS products are easy to use and understand to the general public. There is large hardware and software support for the Windows platform. Sure some of MS's tactics are questionable, but most users dont care as long they can get their e-mail, surf the net and play games. Stability does not matter because most users can overlook the occasional crash. The marketing gurus at MS have made the Windows platform out to be the best in the world, and the world bought it. James Collins
Field Service Engineer
A+, MCP, Network+

email: butchrecon@skyenet.net

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[svanels]

Charisma and bank account in most cases go together, the name Steve Jobs doesn't ring a bell in my head. Alias I am not a US citizen.
The outside world knows the combination Bill Gates /Microsoft.
The rest of the world will move over first? I seriously doubt that. What is the alternative Linux, staroffice ?
Unless the linux operating system come "idiot proof" like windows, it will be running in the background in the server rooms, supported by techno geeks. How many of you remember working in "dos"? Nowadays computer user if he sees c:\ brings the computer to the repair shop. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[sleipnir214]

svanels,

You have never heard of Steve Jobs, who founded Apple Computers with with Steve Wozniak? Astonishing!


SteveTheGeek,

The claim that Steve Jobs has 38 times the charisma of Bill Gates isn't saying much. Your average rock is five times more charismatic than Bill Gates. ______________________________________________________________________
TANSTAAFL!

 

[svanels]

No you say it yes, but to tell you the truth I have never touched an apple computer only seen some pictures in magazines. My first contact with computers was in 86 with a punch card system for a DEC. In 1992 we didn't know Bill Gates untill he came up with Windows 3.11. He made it Ms office 4.0 although in my Opinion WpWin 5.2 was far more better then Word for windows. Steven van Els
SAvanEls@cq-link.sr

 

[garwain]

>Unless the linux operating system come "idiot proof" like
>windows, it will be running in the background in the
>server rooms, supported by techno geeks

As programmers strive to design idiot proof software, the universe strives to build bigger and better idiots. So far, universe 1, programmers 0

Idiot proof doesn't mean squat. For 90% of my support calls, the problem exists between the chair and keyboard (pebcak error). I almost got my mother to switch to linux a while ago, but her accounting software didn't work under wine (yet). I'm going to see if I can use redhat 8 and the latest version of wine to run it. I have had customers what "a Fast computer for email and web browsing, real cheap) Taking out the M$ software brings prices down quickly, and they like having a different screensaver every time they look at their computer.

I tried Redhat 7.3 and was quite impressed with it. My grandmother could probably have installed it, and she has never touched a computer. I'm looking forward to downloading redhat 8.0 and trying it out (just need to pick up some more blank CDs first...)