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The Coming Job Boom 14

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Sep 25, 2002
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Has anyone else read the artice with the above name, in the September issue of Business 2.0 magazine? It's the first + thing about tech emplyment I've read in a while...

ChicagoAnalyst
 
Here's yet another link:
The most interesting sentence in the piece:

President Bush's 2004 campaign Web site makes no mention of the issue, but it's noteworthy that his campaign call center is outsourced to India.

It used to be that no political campaign would dare to do such a thing. Look at printed electioneering matter: every single piece of it has a union bug prominently displayed. Then again, the printers' union has always been strong in the US (which is why books cost ten times what they would if they were imported from Russia or China.)
 
On the article dilettante posted, this caught my eye:
"Without outsourcing, North American companies would have to fire more workers"

If this is an example of the logic of outsourcing, I do believe we will be keeping our projects here at home...

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The never-completed website:
 
Here's another one:

www.computerworld.com, use QuickLink 41494.

It's a very good article that contrasts XP and offshoring.

A quote:

This is the single biggest risk posed by outsourcing software development. Organizations discover that, in fact, they really don't know how to define requirements.
--Michael Schrage, co-director of the MIT Media Lab's eMarkets Initiative.

You heard that first, here, from harebrain! (see Sep 29 post above.)
 
The new job boom? For the Bangalore maybe, not for the US.
I agree that some of the ERP implementation would be hard to outsource abroad, but a lot of other development can and will.
The only way to slow that down,is to unionize. Not that I am a big fan of the unions,but that' the only way to slow down the flow of jobs going abroad.
 
Or would unionizing actually speed up the process? That would be one more reason for businesses to move more and more IT jobs offshore, and perhaps more rapidly.

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
 
The only way to slow that down,is to unionize. ... that' the only way to slow down the flow of jobs going abroad.

Tell that to the
--United Steel Workers
--International Ladies Garment Workers
--United Auto Workers
and so on.

The only jobs that can't be offshored are those that work with products that are physically here in the ground. So hurrah for the United Farm Workers and the United Mine Workers: they might have competition from abroad, but they have products and jobs here to stay.

It all brings us back to the Henry Ford dilemma:
--cheap labor increases profits
--cheap labor can't afford products, which decreases profits

And if you haven't heard this yet, Indian outsources such as Tata are up in arms over the loss of "their" business to even cheaper offshoring sites, such as certain Eastern European countries.
 
Another solution would be to somehow tax the labour that is done abroad. That will make it less attractive for the US companies to outsource.
 
And the business mantra is, to quote the first President Bush,

Read my lips: NO NEW TAXES!

The current President Bush has been even more extreme, rolling back the old taxes.

Tax the labor that is done abroad? Yeah, good luck with that one.

Where is Karl Marx when we need him?
 
Forget Marx. There were some ideas there, but as we've seen they don't work out so well in real societies with real people in them.

I think at this point I'd settle for H. Ross Perot - the guy who warned us here in the U.S. of that "giant sucking sound" of jobs leaving the country if we continued on a path of absurd one-sided trade agreements with 2nd and 3rd world nations.

As ugly and unpalatable as it sounds the only answer is trade barriers. At least this would defuse the arguments of businesses who say they have no choice but to offshore in order to compete. I think that thing from Andy Grove was a veiled plea for U.S. trade barriers - though there was also a flavor along the lines of "protect us from our greedy shareholders."

 
This is a kind of funny or depressing story:

While driving home from work yesterday (I listen to a local talk radio show) and the host was discussing the Wal-Mart bust and the host wanted people to call in and answer whether they thought Wal-Mart was good or a scourge.

One caller worked for a local manufacturing company making, as he said "widgets" (obviously to protect the company's identity). They sold these products to Wal-Mart for a few years and each year he claimed Wal-Mart wanted a better and better pricing deal. The last year the manufacturing, to keep Wal-Mart's business and to keep people employed sold the Widgets to Wal-Mart at cost. Now Wal-Mart wanted a better deal, which the manufacturer couldn't do because they were already selling at cost; so Wal-Mart drops the manufacturer as a supplier of widgets and begins importing them from China for a lower cost than they were getting locally. Now, not only is Wal-Mart getting the item for lower cost, but the local manufacturer says the Wal-Mart shelf price is higher than when his company was supplying Wal-Mart.

So Wal-Mart is double-dipping, getting a lower cost and then raising the price higher.

I am sure this is a more common practice for companies other than just Wal-Mart.
 
And the frustrating thing about those Chinese companies (ok, I don't mean to generalize--'some' chinese compaines):
I have a friend who works for a manufacturer making 'widgets'. This manufacturer, to cut costs, decided to farm out the manufacturing of a particular line of widgets to China.

They met with the Chinese engineers, who looked over the blueprints to assess the cost to manufacture. The Chinese said "No"--we can't do that. But of course they could--and did--with the blueprints they copied from the american firm. They proceeded to steal all the business he American firm who designed the widgets because they could sell it for so much less, with no design/engineering/royalty overhead. And do you think the Trade Dept. or State Dept. cares? Ha!
--Jsteph
 
The only way we can prevent jobs from being outsourced is to boycott companies that are outsourcing.

If a political party, is outsourcing work, DO NOT VOTE FOR THAT PARTY!!!

 
I think the political party has nothing to do with it, so let's not turn this into a political debate. It's economics, and all parties follow the money. You can bet any party is going to go with the best return on their call center investment, and if that means it's in India, then that's where it'll be--democrat or republican.

Outsourcing is just the natural flow of economics at work, and there's nothing inherently wrong with it. The problem is when the playing field is not level--the level-ness of which can be influenced by politics, and that's a whole 'nother discussion.

All we can hope for is that companies realize and take into consideration the 'total cost' of outsourcing, which has been talked about in some of the articles in some of the links above.

As I've said before, it (it being the IT services market) will eventually find its true position with regard to rates. American IT consultants & firms will and have dropped their rates dramatically, and the offshore firms have raised theirs, albiet less so. Also the number of people in the industry is dropping here (a good thing for market dynamics now) and when it's all shaken out those of us who like this work will still be here, and still make a good living, but you won't see very many independants getting $200 per hour as we did in the mid/late '90s.
--jsteph
 
I think you have to see it as all part of a cycle (companies “diversify” then go back to “core business”, and round, and round). Outsourcing has been around forever. The current economic situation is such that the “it will save $xm is a strong one”, quality be damned.

My experience is that when you get new senior executives in a company, they want to make a major impact, and their remuneration is often based on pure cash savings, so they go for outsourcing – it shows a quick return on the bottom line. Quality often suffers, so, the executives move on (with bonuses) and the next bunch in go for “quality”, ie in-house development. And so it goes.

I’ve worked as a user for both outsourced and in-house development of software, successfully in both cases, BUT the prerequisite was that I had direct contact with the developers. I could sit with them (for an entire day, if necessary) to ensure that they understood what I wanted (and I could understand if my requirements were unreasonable, and why, and if necessary, rephrase my requirements). End result, software that did what it was supposed to do.

The move to offshore outsourcing is based on the massive savings it offers, however it precludes the close user-developer relationship and is, almost inevitably, doomed to failure. You get what you ask for, not what you want.

A good (UK) example is the disaster of Railtrack (the privatised railways infrastructure company, which outsourced all of its maintenance), a number of high-profile disasters, and now renamed Network Rail with all maintenance brought in-house. Suddenly, “quality” has replaced “cost-savings” as the mantra.

I think the cycle will come round, unfortunately after many have lost jobs, and major projects have turned into disasters. Suddenly “in-sourcing” will be the next “big thing”. No great consolation for the victims…

 
In Australia over the past month the government majority owned ISP Bigpond has had massive email problems due to 'managements' failure to maintain free capacity on mail servers.

Australian contractors now only do around 5-10% of this nations IT work down from 35% 4 years ago.

Watch out for the Tax Office 'Contractor Test' that comes next.




 
I read this week that the demand for 50 year old proffessionals in USA is going up! because of there wide
experience compred to Narrow minded Internet Freaks...
 
and where did you read that?

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
 
I read this week that the demand for 50 year old proffessionals [sic] in USA is going up...

I read an excerpt of the article in the ACM Digest (can't remember the original source.) The quote is misleading, though. If you read the entire article, the demand for 50-year-old IT pros is increasing compared to previous demand for the over-50 crowd. It is still less than demand for the younger employee. Furthermore, the "increase" is so slight that it's impossible to say whether it's statistically significant. But that's a whole different can of worms.

Both the Digest and COBOL here got suckered into a misinterpretation. Unfortunately, that's not unusual for the ACM Digest.
 
Engineers are still pouring into the country on F1, H1B and L1 visas. I was displaced from a job by a Russian F1 willing to work for $10 per hour in exchange for sponsorship for a green card. This arrangement is not supposed to be legal but if it happened to this MIT graduate it can happen to anybody anywhere.

I was formerly an engineer working in Manufacturing. I knew all about outsourcing when went back to school to study programming. I anticipated all of the outsourcing and thought that I would work as an analyst while the programming went overseas. I never expected that I would have to worry about Congress opening the flood gates to legal and illegal immigrants. Please watch what our politicians are doing or American programmers will be frozen out by low wage workers on our own terf and it won't matter how many jobs are created.
 
VelNPS, This arrangement is not supposed to be legal , your right it's not legal and you should report it. During the sponsoring process they should have completed a Prevailing Wage Determination Form, which basically says we'll pay the guy the same as we would an American worker. If they are not they should be reported. I have no problem bringing in foreign workers when the need is there but not at the expence of American workers.
 
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