So it really is by paid subscription?

[dilettante]

Microsoft to provide free upgrades to Windows 10 for 2 to 4 years presents sone new information about Windows 10 licensing, at least in terms of support.

Instead of charging monthly for bug fixes, security patches, and rolling "improvements" that modify Windows 10 instead of going into future Windows 11, 12, etc... they plan to roll these up into larger lump payments at 2 to 4 year intervals (depending on what sort of "animal" you are, since some are more equal than others):

"Revenue allocated is deferred and recognized on a straight-line basis over the estimated period the software upgrades are expected to be provided by estimated device life," the most pertinent slide stated. "[The estimated device life] can range from two to four years."

Microsoft will determine the device lifetime -- and thus the support stretch -- by "customer type."

It looks like "the first fix is free" in order to get customers hooked on Windows 10. Then after 2 to 4 years they cut you off cold turkey until you fork out a wad of cash for another period of "support."

Sort of like a drug dealer who sells prepaid cards I guess.

 

[jrbarnett]

Microsoft have previously said they will support Windows 10 for the lifetime of the device. Given that we know updates for Windows 7 will continue until January 2020 and 8.1 to Oct 2023, it doesn't make sense for W10 support to expire before this, as otherwise there would be no reason to upgrade, unless required by applications. I tend to buy just behind state of the art and keep for several years, my last pc was just over 8 years old when I replaced it, even my employer has a 5 year shelf life for PCs from purchase through to retirement.
Four years from now is July 2019, well within both OSes support lifecycles and the expected lifespan of new kit bought now.

John

 

[strongm]

> Microsoft have previously said they will support Windows 10 for the lifetime of the device

They did indeed, but have previously failed to indicate what 'lifetime of the device' actually meant, given that it was pretty clearly they did not mean 'as long as the device is still capable of booting'. Indeed, they have studiously ignored the question for months. Now they've sort of clarified it. A bit.

Not quite sure I agree that this indicates that they'll 'cut you off cold turkey', though. My suspicion is that feature and functional upgrading will move to a subscription model (which you can opt out of any time, just as the Windows Insider members will be able to opt out of the Windows Insider program of fast and slow track upgrades on or after 29th July), whilst security patching will possibly follow the more tradition support lifetime.

 

[dilettante]

I haven't seen any suggestion that users can opt out of the mandatory mutation ("feature update") schedule, and even Enterprise customers can only defer mutation for a fairly brief interval of time.

The most recent thing I've seen that tried to boil this down was Windows 10 Home and Pro: automatic updates could become mandatory, though that is just a retelling of some piecing together of released snippets of info plus unofficial rumors via "industry contacts."

For a product so close to release Microsoft has done a pretty miserable job of communicating what is realy involved. They could easily issue a description of the updating plan in plain language and blow all of this speculation away. If they have done so already I'd love to see a link to it.

 

[rclarke250]

What they haven't said, is what would happen, if you upgraded, and come upon their hard date for your device? Is your machine held for ransom, you are locked out until you pay? I can't see that, it would make them no better then the hostage viruses you see popup. And would open them to a bunch of lawsuits. They can't keep you from your data, the first time I see that, it's Linux time. Which would just be stupid, they would drive a bunch of people to use Apple or Linux or Chrome as the OS, or do more with the smart phones and tablets.

 

[dilettante]

Well, wasn't the story for Windows 8 and 8.1 that if you refused mandatory updates you just didn't get any more bug and security fixes until you did allow the updates?

 

[strongm]

>even Enterprise customers can only defer mutation for a fairly brief interval of time

I thought LTSB customers (i.e. enterprise customers) would only receive security and other critical fixes, and will do so for the full 10 years of mainstream and extended support that enterprise customers have been guaranteed will be available for Windows 10. Features and functionality upgrades would be periodically made available as optional LTSB builds (with the caveat that this is only optional in the sense of being able to skip one LTSB build if you want to, so the question really becomes how often LTSB build will be made available; MS claim that LTSB builds will only be rolled out when there are a significant number of new enterprise features to deploy)

>I haven't seen any suggestion that users can opt out of the mandatory mutation

Once they move to subscription service, which is surely where Microsoft have been heading for some time, it is unlikely that people who refuse to subscribe will have their copy of Windows deactivated (as rclarke250 says, that would be stupid). Thus an opt out capability seems inevitable. The mechanism for this is already in place, as can be seen by the fact that Windows Insiders can opt out of their fast and slow track feature preview downloads from July 29th onwards.

 

[dilettante]

The story seems to keep changing, and you almost need to keep a timeline to guess which conflicting story might be closer to the eventual reality as time moves forward.

The Microsoft Edge Will Not Be on Windows 10 LTSB Systems (6/10/2015) seems to suggest something like what you just mentioned above. However it also seems to suggest there will indeed be new versions of Windows beyond Windows 10 for LTSB customers to buy down the road.

Its title topic also suggests that people might want to rethink the idea of supporting the Edge/Spartan browser, since only the rabble will have it installed.

 

[strongm]

Latest details:

http://blogs.technet.com/b/uktechnet/archive/2015/07/13/windows-10-licensing-logic.aspx

 

[dilettante]

Point 3 worries me:

Software vendors and developers can almost guarantee that 90% of Windows users will have the same build

Phrased in warm and fuzzy terms, what it means to me is more like:

"When we push out mandatory updates that break your program, it will break for every one of your users at the same time, and most of them will have no ability to roll the change back until you can adapt your product. So if you aren't a big guy with big resources, you are going to get one black eye after another out of Windows 10."


I see they also completely omitted the fact that "the lifetime of the device" isn't what a normal person would think it means. Instead it means "until we at Microsoft say your device is dead."

As it says in the article I linked in the first post here:

Although details remain skimpy on the upgrade lifetimes Microsoft plans for Windows 10, the two-to-four-year span was the first time the firm named their lengths.

In the slide deck, Microsoft said that the support lifetime would be calculated "primarily ... by customer type," different language than it used in May, when it said support would be determined by "form factor," a way of saying the kind of device.

Customer type, on the other hand, hints at separating consumer and business device owners. Microsoft may use the edition of Windows 10 running on the device to make that determination. If that's the case, free upgrades for Windows 10 Home, say, could be different -- delivered for a shorter stretch, perhaps -- than for Windows 10 Pro, the more expensive SKU (stock-keeping unit) aimed at power users, small businesses and corporations.

It's unclear exactly how the upgrade lifetimes and associated deferrals will affect customers: Microsoft has said nothing about what happens after the lifetime expires, including whether upgrades will be discontinued entirely, be available for a fee, or effectively be moot because a new edition will have superseded Windows 10.

That came out just a few days prior to the upbeat Microsoft blog post. I doubt it has changed.

 

[goombawaho]

There are three models of updates:
Home - you're getting the updates and you are the guinea pig for everyone else. Ha ha.
Current branch for Business - Businesses Get Feature Updates After They’re Tested on Home Computers
Long Term Servicing Branch - provide updates such as security and bug fixes, but not add any major, new functionality


Link
Link

"Living tomorrow is everyone's sorrow.
Modern man's daydreams have turned into nightmares.

 

[strongm]

You have missed out early adopters and Windows Insiders, who will receive updates in advance of Current Branch; they're the guinea pigs ...

 

[goombawaho]

Ok then - the first line of guinea pigs (firing line). Which is why I'm not an early adopter. Too scared.

"Living tomorrow is everyone's sorrow.
Modern man's daydreams have turned into nightmares.

 

[strongm]

I'm an Insider. Squeak, squeak.

 

[dilettante]

An awful lot still seems up in the air anyway, with some "business" features not being pushed out until next calendar year along with the infotainment update Redstone. Maybe in six months things will be clearer.

 

[dilettante]

Interesting development:

Microsoft releases tool to hide or block unwanted Windows 10 updates

Of course this is just for testers in the public beta program, no telling what the RTM version will bring.

 

[dilettante]

Here's one I missed where Microsoft recants the 2 to 4 years figure:

All editions of Windows 10 get 10 years of updates, support

In late June, Microsoft described a support timeline in a presentation aimed at Wall Street, saying there that Windows revenue would be deferred "over the estimated period the software upgrades are expected to be provided by estimated device life, which can range from two to four years."

A Microsoft spokesman confirmed the two-to-four-year stretch, saying in an email exchange last week that, "The upgrades will be for [the] life of device, which we estimate to be 2 to 4 years."

However, Microsoft today put that to rest with its pledge to support Windows for 10 years or as long as the hardware handles the operating, whichever comes first.

I can only wonder what Wall Street makes of this. Or perhaps the real story has been given to them sub rosa.

What weasel words have we failed to decode this time? Or are there industry-wide hardware changes coming in the PC market that we don't expect while Microsoft and Wall Street chuckle in anticipation?

 

[sggaunt]

O its tomorrow, and today's W7 update has changed the icon in Windows update to a sort of W10 thing.
Apart from that the update seems to be a load of test libraries for a range of different stuff.


Steve: N.M.N.F.
If something is popular, it must be wrong: Mark Twain
That's just perfectly normal Paranoia everyone in the universe has that: Slartibartfast

 

[goombawaho]

Chaos is near for all those who dare install.

"Living tomorrow is everyone's sorrow.
Modern man's daydreams have turned into nightmares.

 

[vacunita]

Just got a new Laptop, and immediately it asked me to reserve the Update to Windows 10. We shall see.

----------------------------------
Phil AKA Vacunita
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Ignorance is not necessarily Bliss, case in point:
Unknown has caused an Unknown Error on Unknown and must be shutdown to prevent damage to Unknown.

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