With the cable not being OSP rated cable, any way you run it, it will be in jepordy of the elements. At a minimum, I'd run innerduct, but we use Maxcell, which is a flexible innerduct, so you can get 9 instead of 4 in a 4" conduit. But that won't help if the conduit gets wet.
As for PVC conduit, we've got a major upgrade project that is going to install several thousands of feet of Schedule 40 pvc conduit (all 4"). As long as it's installed correct, and the vaults stay dry (which not all of them do) the conduit will stay dry. Unless it is damaged. And that is going to be man made damage at that point. Which can be repaired.
If you want to be the safest from water issues, check the status of the conduit now to see if its wet. If its not, go with new indoor/outdoor fiber and your golden. If the conduit is wet, you'll need to research why as it may be crushed and impassable. If it just has standing water (from condensation as mentioned above) you'll absolutely need to use OSP cable, as inside rated cable will act like a wick and draw water into you vault/telecom room (especially if its plenum cable).
Justin T. Clausen
Physical Layer Implementation
California State University, Monterey Bay