My 64-bit Ultimate version with Office 2007 and a few basic type programs seemed to settle down at about 30GB.
On a new install there would not really be a lot of fat to trim.
You could look at Compression but the downside would be a slowness that might not be acceptable. Right-click on your hard drive for that option and select Properties.
While you are on the Drive Properties see how much space running Disk Cleanup and turning off, or cleaning up, System Restore via Disk Cleanup's "More Options" can save you.
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