Well, it's kinda hard to say really. You're right, flash banners need the plugin to be viewed, which might encourage banner creators to stick with static or animated gifs (or even plain old HTML). But then again, I've been seeing more and more Flash banners appearing on the web, and the plugin is available for most systems now anyway....
About 96% of internet users' browsers are capable of viewing Flash. I much prefer Flash ads on the sites I design because they load really quickly and can be more animated. If you notice, this site uses Flash banners, and it means dial up users won't be put of by slow loading pages because of those huge gifs. I have used some pretty old and crappy browsers in my time, but never come across one that doesn't show Flash.
I'd go with flash. animated gifs are looking so stale and it's attention you'll want to attract. for the amount of people with flash now it would be fairly safe given the additional effect that can be had.
Obviously don't use flash for the sake of it though. appropriate use is a must.
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