Will it work?

[robherc]

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;We've all heard the hype; we've all shared the excitement; most of us have tried to complete a free download of one distribution or another; most of us have successfully set up a linux box; many of us have successfully put that box to use, not just as an experimental 'toy'. But the real question is <i>'can Linux become a mainstream OS and take over enough market share to keep several companys afloat?&quot;</i><br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes, Linux is a <b>far superior</b> operating system to anything Micro$~1 or Mac in terms of speed and efficiency, but <b>no</b> there are not enough linux-based games to take over much share in that sector of the industry; <b>no</b> there is not enough advertisement, knowledge, and acceptance to take over a significant portion of the home desktop-pc sector of the economy, and <b>no</b>, we have not yet even managed to get a higher number of Linux/Unix based servers on the internet than the NT servers and Unix/Linux is <b><i>made</i></b> mainly with a focus on optimal server performance. REally, this means that a <i>better</i> question is <i>&quot;What are we going to do to seize the opportunity before Micro$~1 gets freed from their court battles & comes back into the tech market fighting, or are we simply going to 'settle' for our current market expansion rates and hope the courts will hold up Micro$~1 for at least the six more years it will take for us to gain substantial market share?&quot;</i><br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Please post answer below <p>-Robherc<br><a href=mailto:robherc@netzero.net>robherc@netzero.net</a><br><a href= shared.freeservers.com/searchmaster.html>SearchMaster Interface...11-in-1</a><br>Wanting to learn Assembler; please e-mail me any tutorials or links for it that are useful to you

 

[RuffNeck]

Hi robherc,<br><br>I think UNIX and Linux are simply not userfriendly enough to catch a lot of marketshare on home-pc's yet. Somehow people like an OS that crashes every hour for no apparent reason better if it is relatively easy to use and mainstream than an OS that is stable but is difficult to set up. I can imagine that a lot of people just don't get things done on Linux because it's not obvious or well-documented. I've been through hell myself getting my Voodoo card to work and I *do* know a lot about UNIX boxes.<br><br>I cannot understand though, how many servers still run Windows NT and even consider using Windows 2000. Professional people making very amateuristic mistakes if you ask me. At work we use a few servers running IBM AIX, not very popular itself, and a few running NT4. The AIX servers have an uptime of more than 8 months now, during which time the NT servers have all crashed at least once, resulting in very boring 'data-restore' nights at the offi e. <br><br>To answer your question: I think we have to make Linux more accesible for the 'normal' users. Easier to set up, easier to maintain and install new software. I know that this is worked on by using RPM's and stuff but I think it's still not foolproof. The idea of compiling a program before you can install it scares a lot of people I think. <br><br>The release of Quake 3 in OpenGL is a very good start to get gamers across the line though. I hope more big game producers will attempt to make release as such.<br><br>All in all, I think if nothing is done about the bad name UNIX has of being very technical and not user-friendly, then we're facing a bigger and better Micros~1 in the future. I'm worried that Linux is a hype which will start fading some day, but then again I can't think of anyone who has used Linux or UNIX that wanted to go back to Windows...<br><br>Just my 2 cents. Anyone else? <p>John 'RuffNeck' Willemse<br><a href=mailto:ruffneck@ruthless.nl.com>ruffneck@ruthless.nl.com</a><br><a href=

http://users.bart.nl/~ruffneck>Just

my homepage...</a><br>These pages change every week or so Some useless C++<br>
programs and ideas I never work out can be found from time<br>
to time...

 

[Kavius]

Unfortunately, I don't think that there is enough money in the OS sector to keep a linux company afloat. Linux, by offering being offered for free, may have shot itself in the foot.

In the distribution of Linux, the first step to overcome is education. People need to be made aware that there are alternatives to windows. I am constantly amazed by people not knowing there is an option. And when they find out the price difference...

This is where the problems really begin. The individual that has researched enough to learn that there is more than one operating system out there is more likely to be willing to research to find the best operating system for himself.

Assuming microsoft has 80% of the marketshare and the other 20% belongs to linux (I'm making up numbers here, I know there are other OSes but let me make my point). I can think of 5 companies that develop linux distros (slackware, redhat, mandrake, lindows, lycoris). That means that people willing to leave windows will likely be distributing their money among multiple companies. This means that Microsoft only has to compete against &quot;linux&quot;, &quot;linux&quot; has to compete against itself.

Assuming an even distribution of usage from the people that leave the microsoft camp, and that everyone pays the company:

1000 people
----
800 windows
200 other (40 to each company)

Price for Windows: ~$319US
Price for Slackware: ~$ 40US

http://www.microsoft.com/windows2000/server/howtobuy/pricing/pricingwindows.asp#heading2

http://store.slackware.com/cgi-bin/store

That means that for this thousand people microsoft got $255,200 and each of the linux companies got $1600. This doesn't even include office suites, and accounting packages, and whatever else people are putting on their computer. Now, who has the money to advertise their product.

I just don't see any profit in running a company that sells linux distros. No profit, no advertising, no education ...

The key to the whole thing is to reduce the number of people that choose Windows out of ignorance. The more people that are making a decision to use an OS, the greater the competition, and the greater the survivability of Linux based companies.

I was impressed to learn that Walmart was selling computers with linux installed. This is what NEEDS to happen. Force people to make a choice. At least they have to think about WHAT they are buying and WHY....


_______________________________________
Ignorance is a beautiful thing:
You don't know what you can't do...

 

[skiflyer]

Just as an aside, from someone who uses both Linux and Windows these days.

XP and 2000 don't crash every 4 hours for no apparent reason. In fact, I can't remember the last time a 2000 or XP box crashed on me when it was definitively my fault.

Linux is getting more and more user friendly, but it's still a pain by comparison.

Linux needs the gamer market maybe, they definately need some other things though.

1) The new and better fonts need to proliferate more... they're mostly there now, it was not so long ago though that installing linux and opening a web browser meant barely readable text.

2) The DVD licensing issue needs to be worked out such that people can watch a DVD on a fresh easy install.

3) The installers need to beef up, I can't wait for Debian's next round, sounds like they might get it right... RedHat is close now I think.

And then of course, it'll still be behind because corporations want and need Exchange, and will always have a need to read Word Documents. Then people who are introduced to computers at work, or take work home, will have a windows box at home.

I think one thing linux did wrong, was get bloated. I had RedHat 7.2 on an old box of mine, ran fine. Eventually I upgraded it to RedHat 8.0 and it was a dog because of low memory. The debate was re-install Win98 since it was mostly a toy and crashes didn't bother me much, or buy more ram.

I used to always be able to tell people, one great thing about Linux is you can resurrect that old box in your basement, I don't feel I can say that so much anymore.

I've rambled, my apologies... my strongest point here though is the one about at work coming home, TCO in the desktop work environment is still cheaper with Windows because it a) comes installed and b) is what people know, when that figure gets cheaper for Linux, we might finally go somewhere with it.

-Rob

 

[Kavius]

Very good point, and close to one of my points. So I feel that I have to add a little something more.

People want want windows because that is what they know (because that is what they are introduced to at work). They know it, not only because they have it at work, but because they have it on their computer at home.

I don't think that linux should be targetting the gamer market, it should be targetting the home user/small business market (of which gamers are a segment). One of the most successful things Bill did was to get his operating system on the desk of big business by getting it on their desks while they were still small business.

I have to agree, completely, with skiflyer on one thing: linux requires easy installation capabilities. It needs to be as simple as &quot;INSTALL THIS FOR ME&quot; and it happens. I have seen installs that were this simple (Real Player, J2EE) but they are the exception. You can't expect the computer illiterate to want to use a computer that they can't get software onto.

I really like Lycoris' installer... Go to their webpage, click on the software you want, it installs (if you are running lycoris).

Other things that I have seen, that I thought showed promise, were mandrake's (I think) package system. You can order any of three packages: Server, Desktop, or Developer (read geek). This is perfect as it offers the right benefits to the right people, rather the all the benefits to everybody (this is how systems get bloated...I'm still with ya skiflyer). This is similar to the way Microsoft markets it's products: W2K Server, or W2K Professional.

And my last comment. W2K is a great platform. There is no blue screen o' death anymore. My biggest beef with it, and the reason I don't use it at home, is the price tag. And while I haven't yet paid for my version of slackware, I intend to with my next paycheck (I just finished paying off the computer).


_______________________________________
Ignorance is a beautiful thing:
You don't know what you can't do...