What are the current fledgling technologies.... 2

[calahans]

I'm wondering what people think are the next wave of technologies and who will be the players. I'm talking about the advent of the PC and IBM, the Windows Desktop and Microsoft, RDBMS and Oracle... Some of these companies came from nowhere to dominate the market - who are the next??<br><br>An example area may be ASP (Application Service Providers) - personally I don't think this babys gonna fly. <br><br>What do you think?<br> <p>Cal<br><a href=mailto: > </a><br><a href= > </a><br>

 

[JimHorton]

I think so/ho/personal firewall software will become very big very soon, as modems as we know them will soon be gone, with people having 24 hr. open lines to the internet.&nbsp;&nbsp;Once the horror stories of people losing their entire hard drives, (including the Quicken accounts!) start being spread around, these packages will be as common as pkzip was in the early '90's.<br>--Jim

 

[Karl Blessing]

Although these personal firewalls might not even be sold seperatly, you'll most likely see them probally intergrated into the next few releases of windows, And I am almost sure you'll probally see them show up in AntiVirus Packages like Norton and MCaffee(they have a firewall but not intergrated into their antivirus), because pretty soon most end users will not understand the concepts of the internet security which is why its best placed into some system that they are already familiar, like intergrated into the OS or their Anti-Virus software. I recently got cable (which goes out and comes back on at 7am, and 10pm I guess to keep the dynamic IPs flowing) But I still use my modem for backup, and I also use it for a phone, answering machine, and fax machine. But I Can see firewall being a big one as he posted since all the news lately about hackers and what not getting most people afraid to even trust these major sites and would resort to any security methods a major corp, or even the evening news recomends to them. <p>Karl<br><a href=mailto:kb244@kb244.8m.com>kb244@kb244.8m.com</a><br><a href=

http://kb244.8m.com>

</a><br>Experienced in , or have messed with : VC++, Borland C++ Builder, VJ++6(starting),VB-Dos, VB1 thru VB6, Delphi 3 pro, Borland C++ 3(DOS), Borland C++ 4.5, HTML, ASP(somewhat), QBasic(least i didnt start with COBOL)

 

[johnk]

I have no idea who the players might be, but I expect to see revolutionary progress is the technology for building and running software applications.&nbsp;&nbsp;Lower costs and improved functionality will result.<br><br>We are in a ridiculously labor intensive technology.&nbsp;&nbsp;Code reuse and universal conventions offer much promise.&nbsp;&nbsp;Application modelers which feed code generators could make a great contribution.&nbsp;&nbsp;DBMS’s with greater data management functions may be big.<br><br>Artificial intelligence could by itself revolutionize our field by producing applications that would routinely self adapt to changing user needs.<br><br>I expect some or all of this is off the mark, and I’m sure there are important directions I know nothing about.&nbsp;&nbsp;However, we use up way too many high quality development resources to be allowed to continue as we are, and there is nothing like a clear resource hog to attract the attention necessary to improve things.<br><br>Another related area for significant change is the human resources it takes to administer networks.&nbsp;&nbsp;IMHO the market for high priced new certificate holders in the field will someday disappear as networking software matures and becomes more self-healing.&nbsp;&nbsp;And why should the field of information technology be continually burdened with such significant operating expenses?<br> <p>John Kisner<br><a href=mailto:jlkisner@jlkisner.com>jlkisner@jlkisner.com</a><br><a href= > </a><br>

 

[MikeLacey]

I would agree with JohnK that an &quot;area for significant change is the human resources it takes to administer networks&quot; the days when it takes an expensive team to administer a network of PC's and printers have just *got* to be numbered.<br><br>However: &quot;revolutionary progress [in] building [..] software applications&quot;<br><br>I somewhat doubt it. JohnK is one of a very few people who have implemented layered (multi-tier) applications and he's getting great benefits from it - but at nn initial cost that will scare off nearly everybody else for the foreseeable future.<br><br><br>Regards<br><br>Mike <p>Mike Lacey<br><a href=mailto:Mike_Lacey@Cargill.Com>Mike_Lacey@Cargill.Com</a><br><a href=

http://www.cargill.com/>

Cargill's Corporate Web Site</a><br>

 

[calahans]

I tend to agree with Jim and kb - security is a huge growth area. If a company could come out with an extremely strong secutiy solution for internet commerce it would be worth big $$$.<br><br>John is right about the code re use, I just feel that unless there is some way that this is integrated into development enviroments it won't be very fast in comming... <p>Cal<br><a href=mailto: > </a><br><a href= > </a><br>

 

[Karl Blessing]

Code reuse is already a big trend that is going on right now, If you havent notice by now alot of componets contribute to code reuse, but I think John is looking at something that is almost transparently reusable in everything.<br><br>(I work with VC++, VB, etc, etc which I create ActiveX and Dlls in both, which can be used in any other language, thus being a very effective Code Reuse, but it is often more than not Microsoft restrictive) <p>Karl<br><a href=mailto:kb244@kb244.8m.com>kb244@kb244.8m.com</a><br><a href=

http://kb244.8m.com>

</a><br>Experienced in , or have messed with : VC++, Borland C++ Builder, VJ++6(starting),VB-Dos, VB1 thru VB6, Delphi 3 pro, Borland C++ 3(DOS), Borland C++ 4.5, HTML, ASP(somewhat), QBasic(least i didnt start with COBOL)

 

[calahans]

<b><i>I had noticed</b></i> that components contribute to code reuse. I just think that there are currently alot of smaller sized developement teams who don't think in terms of reuse (unless its a copy and paste from another project).<br><br>True global object reusability will not be based on MS architecture - by the very nature of microsofts competitive policy. <p>Cal<br><a href=mailto: > </a><br><a href= > </a><br>

 

[Karl Blessing]

I agree that it wouldnt be based on MS architecture, but for now I have not seen much that could be globally reused , I have however seen Java be near globally distributed platform-wise <p>Karl<br><a href=mailto:kb244@kb244.8m.com>kb244@kb244.8m.com</a><br><a href=

http://kb244.8m.com>

</a><br>Experienced in , or have messed with : VC++, Borland C++ Builder, VJ++6(starting),VB-Dos, VB1 thru VB6, Delphi 3 pro, Borland C++ 3(DOS), Borland C++ 4.5, HTML, ASP(somewhat), QBasic(least i didnt start with COBOL)

 

[johnk]

I'm not a big fan of Microsoft.&nbsp;&nbsp;But if resources and will to protect market share count for anything, don't count them out of the process of being a major player in the continuing evolution. <p>John Kisner<br><a href=mailto:jlkisner@jlkisner.com>jlkisner@jlkisner.com</a><br><a href= > </a><br>

 

[Karl Blessing]

Well it seems the major players in almost any market are ones we typically dont like (for example, Microsoft and AOL)<br><br>Microsoft gets its income regardless, because people dont want, or cant use any1 else products easily, and inexpensivly change over.<br><br>AOL well, I dont know exactly how they became major, other than prying on the computationally uneducated people, and convincing them that AOL 'IS' the internet, as well as buying up alot of copanies that make popular downloads (AOl already owns, netscape, ICQ, Winamp, etc) <p>Karl<br><a href=mailto:kb244@kb244.8m.com>kb244@kb244.8m.com</a><br><a href=

http://kb244.8m.com>

</a><br>Experienced in , or have messed with : VC++, Borland C++ Builder, VJ++6(starting),VB-Dos, VB1 thru VB6, Delphi 3 pro, Borland C++ 3(DOS), Borland C++ 4.5, HTML, ASP(somewhat), QBasic(least i didnt start with COBOL)

 

[Zelandakh]

The big players in any market are those that spot an opportunity and get a good marketing campaign/company. Once you get a good market share, it is difficult to depose you. With the advent of the MS break up, even then they will still remain dominant - Linux is free but you don't see the home users flocking to get it.<br><br>It is so instilled in the minds of the populace that MS products will be here for a long time.

 

[Karl Blessing]

Thats because it lacks the user-friendly ness that most end users desire, even if it means giving up stability and reliability <p>Karl<br><a href=mailto:kb244@kb244.8m.com>kb244@kb244.8m.com</a><br><a href=

http://kb244.8m.com>

</a><br>Experienced in , or have messed with : VC++, Borland C++ Builder, VJ++6(starting),VB-Dos, VB1 thru VB6, Delphi 3 pro, Borland C++ 3(DOS), Borland C++ 4.5, HTML, ASP(somewhat), QBasic(least i didnt start with COBOL)

 

[JimHorton]

Yes, MS has the user-friendly thing down, but I think they've overdone it a bit...I'm referring to their general 'let us second-guess your every thought' attitude, but also specifically to Mr. Paperclip guy--that's one character I'd like to put to a metal grinder.&nbsp;&nbsp;--Jim

 

[Karl Blessing]

At work we've always made jokes about how much M$ assumes they know about their users <p>Karl<br><a href=mailto:kb244@kb244.8m.com>kb244@kb244.8m.com</a><br><a href=

http://kb244.8m.com>

</a><br>Experienced in , or have messed with : VC++, Borland C++ Builder, VJ++6(starting),VB-Dos, VB1 thru VB6, Delphi 3 pro, Borland C++ 3(DOS), Borland C++ 4.5, HTML, ASP(somewhat), QBasic(least i didnt start with COBOL)

 

[calahans]

To become a long time big player a company must have two things going for it:<br><br>An open proprietary architecture (open in the sense that other companies can use its apis to program for it ala Microsoft & Playstation)<br><br>A high cost to switch (ala Microsoft & Intel)<br><br>If a company can get into a fledgling market which has the second feature and make themselves the industry standard. They will not easily be displaced.<br><br>As to what company/market has this in the pipeline is another story - if I knew I would sink $$ into it... <p>Cal<br><a href=mailto: > </a><br><a href= > </a><br>

 

[nevmega]

Greetings&nbsp;&nbsp;All,<br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I have the answer and it's a duzy!! <br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Here goes:<br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The Internet is based on the premise of a. collecting data about spending habits b. ofering unlimted amounts of varying information (progams, club, mail-order, personal interets)<br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;There's an new wireless company that offers yuo the ability to stream full bandwidth media form your dusty-phone jack. They carry your signal via wireless and you only pay against the amount downloaded. With anyone now become the next ABC large companies will contract small &quot;sub-stations&quot; to get their viewers....cheaper/faster. SUPER-SUB CULTURE DRIVEN MEDIA!!! A wave of miniature TV networks for low cost. Forget having a personal web page.....what about a Friggin' channel ..........about whatever.<br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;That company will be in the position of being the &quot;Turneresque&quot; Monopoly.........<br><br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Well.......what do you think!!<br>.MEGA<br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

 

[COBOL]

My Opinion is that a lot will change in the next 2 years.<br>1) Fast Internet will be common. Videos for promoting Products etc.. as a result.<br>2) Now only 2 % of the World use Internet, This will have to grow for economic<br>reasons. So Computers and Internet will have to be Easier to Use.<br>Bill Gates said that Future Computers will have to be easy<br>to use. Microsoft is the main reason (Today)  why Computers are still difficult to use by many People. Had Network Computers with Java VM took off 2 years ago,<br>Webtv's and many other Appliances would have been common Now.<br>This will change in not more than 2 years.<br>3) Safe B2B B2C will continue to change Business.

 

[carpeliam]

Yeah, but if AOLTV gets underway (and it just might, I'm not sure what Congress has said about it), we're all in deep trouble... *groans* <p>Liam Morley<br><a href=mailto:lmorley@wpi.edu>lmorley@wpi.edu</a><br><a href=

http://www.wpi.edu/~lmorley/>

] :: imotic :: website :: [</a><br>"light the deep, and bring silence to the world.<br>
light the world, and bring depth to the silence.

 

[Guest_imported]

In response to the comment that ASP's might be the wave of the future, I'm not so sure. The ASP model works really well for small firms that have very generic software needs. It also works well for startups or any firm on a tight budget. (monthly payments are easier on the wallet than a full license fee) However, ASP's are not customized, and that is a problem for many of the larger software buyers. Unfortunately for the small business, it is the companies in the Fortune 500 that often determine what is the next big push (at least with respect to gross sales). Right now, it looks like that push is in web applications. Over the past 24 months, over 70% of the Fortune 500 have decided to upgrade at least some of their software to web apps. That's why I created ClaspOne. (

http://www.ClaspOne.com)

We are a customized web application creator that appeals to the budget of sub-Fortune 500 companies. I figure &quot;Why should the big guys get all the benefits of technology to themselves?&quot;