MS has done two awesome things. Programming IDE's and Xbox.
So yes VB6 to VB.NET was as much of a revolution as it was an evolution. Basic to VB to VB.NET, all big leaps. Can they kill VBA? I don't think so. I think Word and Excel users would go mad if they killed it or replaced it without a automatic migration tool. And I doubt they could get something 90% effective on that front. IF they do, Access may be in trouble because I doubt MS would invest in that for Access or to revamp it. But I don't see office jumping up on the IDE / programming language front. So then the question is, is Access profitable in its own right? Again I say as long as there are enough people who buy Office because Access is in it, it will stick around. It will stick around because at big bureaucratic corporations, Shadow IT is the only way to get your job done. What office product are you going to turn to for your Shadow IT database needs? Access. Is it going away? I doubt it. Could it? Sure. Unless there is some secret Access killer project in the works, I think Access will be around for a long time. What would Shadow Box do? Shadow box is my fictitious code name for the MS project that kills Access.
Shadow box would blur the lines between database, cloud, sharepoint, security administration and web forms so that things can be handled simply by business users seamlessly and be as easy to extend programmatically as office is today. Would that also put programmers out of work and reduce market share of .Net? Sure. So somewhere there is a tipping point. I could be wrong but I do not see it on the horizon. It will come though. And It may not be Microsoft. I would sit tight for 5 years and then assess whether anything has materially changed then. On the flipside, professional Access programmers are a dying breed and there is better money everywhere else for anyone starting out.