Hi,
I'm new to this forum, and just read the thread. No idea what is causing the connection, but I know how to track it. A few years ago, I learned about Sunbelt Personal Firewall (aka Kerio) for Windows. LOVE IT! Spent my $30 and never looked back. It's main feature is software-based firewall protection, that blocks and reports both internal and egress attempts! In the case above, you would get an immediate pop-up dialog that would say exactly which program/process is trying to open the outbound connection. Options are to BLOCK, ALLOW, with the sub-option to remember the choice and not ask again. I was astounded at the number of apps that 'silently' phone home for undocumented reasons. I say silently because the apps don't complain when their phone home attempt is BLOCKed. I find M$ apps to be the worst in this regard. God knows what information they would be sending home (if I let them).
I'm sure there many other products in this category, but I'm only familiar with SPF. Did I mention I love it?
;-)