Just read this today. Take a survey of the people on a programming forum. Find out how many live overseas and are doing cutting-edge programming for $15/hour....scary
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THE IT RUST BELT
Posted July 12, 2002 01:01 PM Pacific Time
"Mother, mother ocean / After all the years I've found
/ My occupational hazard being / My occupation's just
not around."
-- Jimmy Buffet, "A Pirate Looks at 40"
OF ALL THE requests for advice I receive, the hardest
come either from college graduates and career changers
wanting to know how to break into IT or from older
programmers who want to write code until they retire
but can't even get an interview. They've been sold on
the idea that proficiency with computers practically
guarantees employment. Now, nobody wants 'em.
I'd love to offer hope and great advice. Regrettably,
the best advice I have is this: Find a different field
of endeavor. Unless you're in the top rank, there's
little future for you in IT.
The supply of programmers exceeds demand and that
drives down prices -- your wages. That's because the
genie of globalization is out of the bottle, and it's
going to stay out of the bottle at least until the
Internet closes shop.
Twenty years ago, the same thing happened to factory
jobs. U.S. factory workers were unionized, which
simply meant that instead of keeping jobs and
accepting lower wages, their jobs went away altogether
as the factories relocated to the Philippines,
Malaysia, and Taiwan. Now it's our turn: Indian and
Asian programmers work as hard as or harder than their
American counterparts, and for lower wages.
It's easy to blame greedy CEOs for this mess, but
employers aren't just being greedy when they shift
these jobs to foreign workers. If they don't and their
competitors do, they have to charge more for the same
products and services. Not exactly a formula for
success. And when business shifts to the competitors,
the jobs do too -- overseas.
Nor would changing the H-1B program -- or even
eliminating it altogether -- help. Whether foreign
programmers come here or programming jobs go there,
the result is the same except for which country
collects the income tax. Foreign programmers produce
code just as good as that coded by American
programmers. For less. Are you willing to compete?
Is this a good thing? Not for the average U.S. citizen,
I imagine, although it will help keep prices down when
we're shopping.
Not every IT job will move overseas, of course. Much of
management will remain, as will jobs where proximity,
linguistic ability, and cultural familiarity are
important, like network administration, systems
analysis, user-interface design, help desk, and
project management. Nor will all programming jobs move
overseas, of course. Plenty of U.S. factories remain
open, too. But the trend is clear, and it means an
increasing number of American programmers will be
competing for a decreasing number of jobs.
So if you still want a programming career, here's the
best advice I have: Expect to work harder for less.
Are you more optimistic? Send Bob an e-mail
at RDLewis@ISSurvivor.com. Bob Lewis heads
IS Survivor Training (
organizer of "Leading High-Performance IT."
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Thomas V. Flaherty Jr.
Birch Hill Technology Group, Inc.