Lifespan of a loaded and disconnected new Hard Drive

[tetralin]

First off, hello and glad to be here. OK, I am interested in the opinions from my fellow tekies on the lifespan of a new hard drive loaded to the hilt with images, video's, documents and maybe a few progs. The hard drive will be promptly removed from the computer and carefully stored in a controlled environment.

I am thinking of obtaining a couple of IDE or SATA drives and duplicating my backup between 2 drives. I am 46 years old. (if it helps in your calculations)... Will my great or great greats, or future historians/archeologists be able to view the majority of the content in say 100 or more years(if the human race survives that long)from now? If you think not, please give your thoughts on how long they may be readable, and any means of storage which would help in it's longetivity. I know this could be a deep subject, but I am interested in the basics of the concept. Thanks in advance!

 

[xit]

If you think this through, indeed, you must also include the ability to use these hard drives, stow away an up to date PC system with complete instructions for use as 100 years from now this will be antiquated. Stored properly, who knows the longevity, seems they must have a caretaker after you have passed to keep them safe.

xit

 

[Johnthephoneguy]

just look at what hard drives were 15-20 years ago, and then imagine what they would be 75 years from now! I think XIT is right, you should store a complete PC, otherwise everything would be different to try and use the HD in 100 years.

JohnThePhoneGuy

"If I can't fix it, it's not broke!

 

[cdogg]

Physically speaking, you are referring to the breakdown of metal oxides coating each platter inside the hard drive. It is what stores magnetic charges that in turn can be read as data. I haven't found any concrete evidence on how long that breakdown takes, but many say other mechanical parts in the drive like its bearing may suffer from corrosion and/or dry up before the platter itself deteriorates.

The oldest drive I've fired up myself was about 11 years old at the time. I was still able to retrieve data, although I didn't check the entire drive. I think it would be safe to assume 15-20 years is possible based on what I've read. The platters' data will likely outlast the hard drive's mechanical parts, and with expensive data recovery methods, could probably store data for many years more (though I wouldn't put money on it or risk anything important).

They say magnetic tape believe it or not is even better lasting 40-50 years if it's premium grade. I'd say instead of taking any chances, it would be best to set a backup interval that is much less than the projected lifespan, say 4-5 years for an offline hard drive.

~cdogg
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." - Einstein
[tab][navy]For posting policies, click [/navy]here.

 

[technome]

Oldest drives I needed to pulled were 21 years old, data was intact, old MFM drives. I would not count on any media >20 years old.

"I am thinking of obtaining a couple of IDE or SATA drives and duplicating my backup between 2 drives." If I were archiving, I would definitely use multiple cloned drives. As to manufacturers media "lifetime" claims, count them as hearsay, mere opinions.

Agree with JohnthePhoneGuy, you would need to leave a complete PC and detailed instructions on it's operation for use 75 years from now, if the media survived. Also you would need to inform your Will's excecutor of you wishes.


........................................
Chernobyl disaster..a must see pictorial

http://www.kiddofspeed.com/default.htm

 

[BadBigBen]

I would not count on any media >20 years old.

microfilm/fiche...

These guys will store anything...

Microfilm Storage
Microfilm libraries love our vaults.

Microfilm endures well beyond paper, hard drives, optical disks and magnetic media – if stored correctly. Fluctuating temperature and humidity, airborne pollutants, and improper handling can be devastating to polyester, silver, diazo and acetate-based film. Pre-existing deterioration is accelerated in such conditions.

Underground Vaults & Storage facilities are uniquely suited for preservation and safekeeping of your microfilm, microfiche, and aperture cards.

Underground Vaults & Storage, Inc.

http://www.undergroundvaults.com/

Ben
"If it works don't fix it! If it doesn't use a sledgehammer..."
How to ask a question, when posting them to a professional forum.
Only ask questions with yes/no answers if you want "yes" or "no"

 

[technome]

I was referring to computer related media, and microfilm is not near photo quality with present technology, but as a compromise and easy solution which will out last, not a bad idea for data and photographs. Suppose within 20 years computer technology will develop new storage media which will last much longer as there is a definite need.

http://www.nedcc.org/resources/leaflets/6Reformatting/01MicrofilmAndMicrofiche.php

........................................
Chernobyl disaster..a must see pictorial

http://www.kiddofspeed.com/default.htm

 

[cdogg]

I just thought about an obvious option - cloud computing. Of course, there are still many issues that online services are working through, but eventually it will be the ultimate solution in data storage and accessibility. Though downtimes are not 100% preventable, redundancy is top-notch and should last as long as the service does.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_Computing

That just leaves you with cost and security concerns once all the other kinks are hammered out!

~cdogg
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." - Einstein
[tab][navy]For posting policies, click [/navy]here.

 

[cdogg]

<side note>
Made me think of that scene at the end of Back to the Future II when Marty gets that 70-year old letter from Western Union!

 

[wahnula]

Made me think of that scene at the end of Back to the Future II when Marty gets that 70-year old letter from Western Union!

...what nobody knows is that Doc Brown is posting on this board as edfair...

Tony

Users helping Users...

 

[cdogg]

[LOL]

 

[edfair]

Not funny, Tony. Well, maybe. But surely you can do better than that.

Ed Fair
Give the wrong symptoms, get the wrong solutions.

 

[edfair]

Now that you have my attention I'll kick in my 2 cents worth.

I've pulled stuff off 20 year old tape and 25 year old hard drives, including my 10meg shurgart 712 from a long time ago. But there are issues.

Tape drive capstan rollers are rubber and I don't think I have a drive left with a roller that hasn't either sponged up or cracked.

Hard drive controller technology keeps changing. I can still get access to my 5 and 10 meg hard drives with ISA based MFM controllers but pretty soon I expect that ISA capabilities will cease to exist except in museums and my basement.

One of the presidential libraries found out that tape was unreliable when they opened the carrier and discovered cellophane and rust. The binder was bad and the media fell off.

Best bet as far a I can see is to update the backup to the latest media every 10 years or so, before the old type becomes inaccessible. Counting on a stored computer to boot up 10 years after it was cosmolined is pretty much a crapshoot. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't. This I can personally vouch for since I'm currently doing a system wide upgrade for a customer, taking him from some 1992 stuff to somewhat later, actually from MSDOS 5.0 to dual boot 5.0 and 98SE. When I started with the project I found my last modifications were 2002 and the previous ones were 1992. I can't recall when I started working with him. Oh, and from token ring to dual media tcp/ip and netbios for those who understand that talk.

Ed Fair
Give the wrong symptoms, get the wrong solutions.

 

[technome]

Oh, and from token ring to dual media tcp/ip and netbios for those who understand that talk."
Been a while since I was there, perhaps the Smithsonian would want the dual media cards for a display, as tools used by Neanderthal It geeks. Wonder how much this "network" cost in productivity over the years, as Sneakernet had more throughput.



........................................
Chernobyl disaster..a must see pictorial

http://www.kiddofspeed.com/default.htm

 

[edfair]

I misspoke. Different protocols depending on the application and operating system. But going from thinnet to twisted pair using netbios or tcpip.

There has been no productivity hit. the token ring would still be fine if cards were available. But supporting a customer who has the last of kind hardware leads to sleepless nights. Particularly if the proposed migration is still untested, which is where it stands today. That and finding a supply of network cards that will work in obsolete hardware on an obsoleted version of a discontinued network operating system. But hey, somebody has to do it.

 

[paparazi]

I seem to remember, chiselling writing and drawings onto tablets of stone working particularly well but then again where are those tablets now! lol
I think s previous poster had the most practical answer and that was: every 20 years or so, copying over data onto the latest media. That you require a 'keeper' or a series of 'keepers' assigned for the task....some holy order who's sole duty in life is to maintain/sustain and protect this information.
Martin

On wings like angels whispers sweet
my heart it feels a broken beat
Touched soul and hurt lay wounded deep
Brown eyes are lost afar and sleep

 

[edfair]

Punch cards have lasted a long time. I have some program cards from 1961 that are still usable but I don't have a keypunch to use.
Punched tape has lasted even longer but finding a ASR33 or a reader is probably impossible.
Even if I could find the hardware, since the things being stored are memory intensive, the bit density is a problem.

The one item that hasn't been mentioned is PROM. That should be good for a long time. The problem is finding somebody in the distant future who knows about hardware to be able to get it back.

Ed Fair
Give the wrong symptoms, get the wrong solutions.

 

[technome]

....some holy order who's sole duty in life is to maintain/sustain and protect this information." LOL, but damn, what a boring holy order it would be.

" I have some program cards from 1961 that are still usable.." As long as our friend does not leave the data entrusted to Florida residents, as they have big issues with hanging tabs. Could see it now, one large suitcase full of cards per photo.


........................................
Chernobyl disaster..a must see pictorial

http://www.kiddofspeed.com/default.htm

 

[edfair]

hanging chad". The Florida issue wouldn't be chad, it would be water, or more precisely, vapor. Cards absorb water from the air and become difficult to feed. I've flushed better paper that some of the cards that came from Florida 3 days after it rained there. But then again, maybe they improved the cards since I fought the battle.

There would be the same problem with bit density with PROM, but not to the extent of a suitcase size of storage per picture.

Another possible solution is flash memory. The flash drives are getting into the multi gb range so they are a possibility. But they are also subject to some random failures. I assume the manufacturers will get the problems sorted out.

Ed Fair
Give the wrong symptoms, get the wrong solutions.

 

[PRPhx]

Well, if you really want to store files on physcial media, you would need to spend a fair amount of money.

There are companies that say with their technologies, data can be saved up to at least 50 years. It's called UDO or Ultra Density Optical media. There are several companies that produce this media. However you would also need the reader for the media, and that can be fairly expensive.

Here's an article I found, that may be of some interest:

http://forums.photographyreview.com/showthread.php?t=2013

Also:

http://www.square-9.com/solutions/plasmon.html,

which states that Plasmon's corp's UDO media will last 100+ years (Unfortunely Plasmon went out of business earlier this year. I'm not sure who, if anyone bought them out).