Last one out, turn out the lights? 1

[dilettante]

Has anyone else noticed a bit of a downturn lately?

I'm having more trouble getting new projects, and one client just canceled a follow-on project to something I did for them last winter. Several people I've collaborated with in the past have gotten out of IT altogether.

The local chapter of a software professionals' association is thinking about folding its tent because membership is way down. The issues seem to be money and the fact the long commutes to new jobs are leaving people too strained to attend meetings and participate in projects or other activities on their own time.

Two IT training companies have closed offices here in the last year.

I would suspect this to be a localized geographic phenomenon, but it seems that over the past 6 to 8 weeks even forum postings are down. This seems to be true here and elsewhere. Then again, maybe interest in waning in the technologies I'm most interested in.

I hear the economy is "booming" but there must be quite a lag factor. Things were doing much better just last January. Is this the "calm before the storm?"

Anyone else seeing this? Anyone seeing things picking up already where you are?

 

[chiph]

The paper on Friday had a report that unemployment was down in all 100 counties in North Carolina. This is the first time it's happened since 1994.

So, I think that things are picking up. Just maybe not everywhere at once.

Chip H.


If you want to get the best response to a question, please check out FAQ222-2244 first

 

[dilettante]

That's a positive sign. Thanks for the encouragement Chip.

 

[chiph]

Another good story in today's paper:

http://newsobserver.com/business/story/3540509p-3143459c.html

(the link may expire soon, but you might be able to get to it via Google News, search on headline of "Good news: Some local companies hiring" for the Raleigh News & Observer.)

Chip H.


If you want to get the best response to a question, please check out FAQ222-2244 first

 

[BNPMike]

Activity is up but let's say it has doubled. It dropped 85% so now it is down only 70%. Still a vicious situation. Especially if you're not young (ie over 40)...

 

[Tarwn]

Ciphp: Aha, so our plan to move everyone out of the sate is working better than we thought

Seriously though, i have to say I'm glad to hear that about NC, are two largest cities were hit pretty hard by the economic downturn, I'm sure the empty office park are still up in Raleigh...I remember going to meet with a client once in a 4 story office building. The office park had 5 similar buildings and was renting out by the half floor, they only had three businesses left in there. Really shows just how much of an effect the tech boom/bust had indirectly on other markets.

-T

_{01000111 01101111 01110100 00100000 01000011 01101111 01100110 01100110 01100101 01100101 00111111}
The never-completed website:

http://www.tiernok.com/

 

[chiph]

Yup.

I've got a friend who worked at a company that went from 255 employees to 75. Unfortunately, they had signed a 5-year lease, and after downsizing, couldn't find anyone to sublet to. So the employees pretty much had whatever cube/office they wanted. The rest of the space was a ghosttown once they returned the workstations, cube walls, etc.

It's actually not a bad place to work from what he says -- the product management team is very strong and has a plan in place for implementing new features on a monthly basis for the next year and a half. Because of this, they are able to meet their schedules and deliver on time. But that subject is another thread!

The commercial real estate market is still not doing good. There's a million square feet of class-A office space empty in the area, and the landlords are complaining that the tech companies aren't expanding as fast as they should (well, duh). The local firms are being much smarter about expanding -- they're only bringing on people as they absolutely need them, and jamming them together into office space until the pressure gets too great, before leasing more space (i.e. what they should have been doing all along).

Chip H.


If you want to get the best response to a question, please check out FAQ222-2244 first

 

[rphips]

Also

Unemployment rates giving out by the goverment is only based on those enrolling in unemployment and those that are on unemployment.

It doesn't include those who unemployment ran out and are either out of work still or flipping burgers instead of the jobs they are trained to do.



bob

"ZOINKS !!!!!"

Shaggy

 

[Tarwn]

Well, we could all agree to start writing really bad software (those of us who write software). That way we could increase the need for technical support personell plusif we work really slow we would need more programmers. If we managed to get everyone to do it then we could not only increase employment, but also lower peoples magic expectations of computers

No I'm not really being serious,
-T

_{01000111 01101111 01110100 00100000 01000011 01101111 01100110 01100110 01100101 01100101 00111111}
The never-completed website:

http://www.tiernok.com/

 

[MasterRacker]

I'm in the Minneapolis area. I'm seeing more ads for IT positions, but also more that demand salary requirements up front to even apply. This tells me it's still a buyers market. I don't know if the employment market tracks well with the consultant martket, but I'm guessing it's close.


Jeff
The future is already here - it's just not widely distributed yet...

 

[KornGeek]

Tarwn,
If we do a really good job of writing bad software, we would create additional demand for testers, thereby increasing the employment rates.

Is anybody besides me beginning to think that a strong work ethic may have led to the downfall of the tech market?

 

[johnherman]

When applying for a job and asked for salary, give yourself a good 10k range in your salary requirements saying it depends on actual job responsibilities (beeper, on-call, overtime, weekend work) and on benefits.

Sometimes the grass is greener on the other side because there is more manure there - original.

 

[ecobb]

Tarwn and KornGeek, it's sad to say, but I actually know a company that operates like that. They intentionally write bad (web site)applications and inadequate databases that will work fine for several months (just long enough for the customer to become dependent on it). Then, when everything crashes, they come in with the "Your use of this application has grown past the original design specifications and it can't handle what you're throwing at it. We will need to completely redesign everything for a larger scale." story. And then they wind up charging the customer again for rewriting the program to make it work (or go in and fix the bugs they created).

Could it be that they're just one step ahead of everyone else? I hope not!



Hope This Helps!

Ecobb

"My work is a game, a very serious game." - M.C. Escher

 

[johnwm]

I find the amazing issue is this:

1. We see stories of companies who <intentionally write bad (web site)applications and inadequate databases>

2. In another thread we rant on about how terrible outsourcing is

We don't spot any irony in the situation do we? Talk about making a rod for our own back!

________________________________________________________________
If you want to get the best response to a question, please check out FAQ222-2244 first

'If we're supposed to work in Hex, why have we only got A fingers?'

 

[jsteph]

dilletente,
When I read your post I had to look at the date on it because I thought it must be from about 2 years ago. Back then, things were way down everywhere I could see.

Now, things are coming up again, which is why the timing of your post surprised me. I'm not sure of your area, but here in Chicago things have picked up a fair amount. The company that I've been lucky enough to be at for the past 4 years has hired 4 new IT people in the last few months, and we're spending big bucks on capital items.

I'm sure we won't see the big-time go-go days like the late '90s again (since it was a fabrication anyway), but I think it's smooth sailing for the near future. I look at the last few years as sort of a 'cleansing'--the people who got into IT for the wrong reasons (money, money, and money), but didn't know diddley--they were typically the first to get canned and now they're either collecting unemployment or doing what the used to do before trying to hop on the gold rush. Now this field will hopefully be populated with those of us who love what we do.

I hope that doesn't sound too 'hitleresque', but in my company anyway, when the axes fell they mostly hit the young, brash, hot-shots who were the least qualified but who thought that because they did a web page for their cousin that they should be exalted.
--jsteph

 

[dilettante]

Glad to hear about a turnaround jsteph. Good news is always preferable to yet more of the other sort.

I'm in central lower Michigan, and in most ways we never profited from the "90s bubble" with all of the fast-track hiring and escalating salaries. Since a lot of the IT jobs here were tied more to manufacturing and related supply-chain industries and the companies supporting these comunities maybe we're going to see a bit more lag in recovery here.

I'm afraid the "falling axe" here hit a lot of people who lost manufacturing jobs in the 80s and early 90s. Many of them were retrained and transitioned into entry-level IT jobs, and had begun moving into mid-level positions by 1999's Y2K frenzy. Since many didn't have deep experience with the skills needed to remediate legacy systems they tended to gravitate into things like platform admin or web page development - the very things that have been feeling the axe bite deepest.

New project starts of all kinds are down here yet. It is good to hear that things may be finally turning around again though. I just haven't seen it yet. People are still taking pay cuts here to retain existing positions.

Even our State government IT employees are still seeing "unpaid furlough days" and "banked leave in lieu of pay" and the like. People here generally think of these as well paid and cushy - but not lately. I had the idea that Illinois was in much the same position.

 

[lionelhill]

(1) I think part of the problem is that well-written code actually doesn't need rewriting as often from the users' perspective as the IT world would like. I'm happy with Word and Excel how they are, and can happily do my job without buying a new version every year. But the software world needs me to keep buying new things or there's no income any more.

(2) I like the title of this thread, dilettante. When I look at some of the forums here I just feel that the last one out is unlikely to have the necessary technical ability to turn the lights out:

[exageration=slight]
(Assembly: "I got this file called homework.asm off myhomework.com but it doesn't execute when I click on it. Please tell me how it works. I need it for tomorrow."
C: "I'm writing a simple rocket-navigation system with a 3d interactive display and stereo sound, so I've made this bubble-sort function but it makes errors every time I call it. Pleez Help." either nothing, or 14-pages of badly-written code attached. )
[/exageration]

 

[dilettante]

Well lionelhill, I was fishing for good news because it hasn't ramped up locally yet that I have seen. I've been waiting it out, but I think I'm seeing a lot of people here just settling into a "we'll just get along without" pattern.

Your comments about products like MS Word reflect some of what I'm hearing. I've looked hard at Office 2003 and have it installed on two machines myself. Much of what's changed is pretty impressive from an Office developer perspective, especially VSTO 1.0 which some will see as quite an advance over VBA, which was getting long in the tooth. In most cases though I can't see clients upgrading beyond Office 2000, and a few are still staying with '97.

I'm not so sure about the last part above, but I have noticed clients asking if I can "assign their work to junior people" - I assume as a hopeful cost-saving measure. Boy, talk about awkward! I assumed age discrimination laws protected contract employees but I'm told just asking is not an offense.


I've been pleased to hear things might be turning the corner to some extent already though.

 

[lionelhill]

yup, the major thing that forces me to upgrade Office is that people start sending me files in a format that I can no longer open...

As for the age-discrimination one, I suppose your clients aren't doing anything different than the lady who looks out for a sign offering cheap haircuts by the trainee hairdresser (you know: "Models required..."). Really, in fairness, a job should cost the same, whoever did it. It's just expensive people can do expensive jobs and still get them right.

 

[jrbarnett]

Lionelhill

No need to buy Office 2003 if all you need to do is view their files. Just download and install the free Word/Excel/Powerpoint viewers from the Microsoft website.

Personally though, I'm able to view and print Word/Excel XP documents created in my OfficeXP setup with Office 97 and Word 97 viewer on my Win2003 server setup. No need to upgrade.

John