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Forecast Consumption

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jdblank

IS-IT--Management
Sep 27, 2006
25
US
Progression 7.6.100a

99% of the time forecast consumption works well for us out of the box – it consumes this periods forecast and stops consuming when forecast is exhausted in the current period (monthly) – in other words, it doesn’t consume future periods.

However, we have an exception on our fixed quantity promotions. We anticipate (or forecast) the promotion to last 3 months, but we may oversell 75% the entire promotion in 1 month, its hard to project. In other words, when the promotion build is consumed, we want it done – we make no more. For financial projections and budgeting we need to forecast these in lets say 3 month buckets, covering 3 periods, which drives a 3 month sales dollar projection. When we do this, it consumes the 1st period and stops, then we end up building more in the cases of oversell in a specific period. For example, if I load forecast for period 1, 2, and 3 at 100 each; build 300 right now to cover, I consume or sell 200 in period 1, I end up building an additional 100 to cover period 2 and 3 – we can’t do this.

Right now, I see my only option (that is - without writing our own consumption utility internally) is to maintain 2 forecasts for one part. A Planning Bill with no price (as to not affect the financial projections and budget), I’d dump the 300 forecast in example above into 1 period, build it and call it done. I’d then have to maintain another part number with a price and no BOM, keep it out of our planning system, and spread forecasts over the 3 periods so we can project and budget sales numbers, then transfer inventory from the planning bom (when produced, If we can even do a shop order for a planning BOM I’ve never tried that) to the actual part number (because we need default price in OE as we can’t have these people manually figure out and enter prices) – plus manually maintain costs (SPC), at least lower level material cost, on the actual part as there is no BOM. This is a painful work around.

I’m wondering if anyone has any idea’s on out of the box configuration, or if anyone else has dealt with something similiar? I am only working in MS, we feed the forecast (in most cases consumed forecast) to an advanced planning system not Mac MRP, so MS is the only package I can toy around with the demand signal and consumption on. It’s almost like I need to define my length of period on and item per item basis (One period covering 3 months on these exception cases) instead of 1 global period definition, even better would be defining periods on a Product Category basis.

Thanks in advance for any useful advice.

JB
 
What do you have the consume forecast flag set to?

Software Sales, Training, Implementation and Support for Macola, eSynergy, and Crystal Reports

"If you have a big enough dictionary, just about everything is a word"
--Dave Barry
 
right now its set to "G" - greater, but once Forecast is zero, we don't start bringing in the CO's into planning. Basically we can't react quick enough to make to order when we meet or exceed forecast - we are process mfg so reaction time is minimum 3 weeks. I use "G" and merge consumed qty - msschfil.qty.....

thanks.
 
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