Browsers the next os? 2

[j4606]

I was wondering if you guys think the future os may be run in a web browser. I see so many cool things running off web browsers now its bound to happen I think. Here are a few links to get the topic flowing.

Desktop:

http://extjs.com/deploy/dev/examples/desktop/desktop.html

Paint:

http://www.amaltas.org/svgapp/

mp3 player:

http://www.schillmania.com/projects/soundmanager2/demo/jsAMP-preview/

IRC chat Client:

http://www.mibbit.com/

Google has some examples of online Calendars, email, IM, but what I really like is google docs a web-based word processor and spreadsheet.

http://docs.google.com/

 

[strongm]

You may want to review what an operating system actually is before suggesting it would run in a web browser ...

 

[BNPMike]

It is going that way. Your question could almost be re-phrased "Is Microsoft giving way to Google?". If you want to build a commercial application today, you would make it thin client. The next step however is probably not going to happen. You need an operating system to support a browser. Linux for example is more or less free and Windows will get cheaper to keep up. Also you need a server, and pervasive broadband is still a way off for most people.

 

[Sympology]

In an answer No!

You simply cannot run all apps in a browser, partly due to the code and parlty because it will be a truely awful expierence.
What is the point of firing up one app, just to run another. Software is (hopefully) about getting the most from your hardware, browser are about compromise.Is a games comany expected to wait 5 years for a new standard, just so they can release a game. I think not.

Only the truly stupid believe they know everything.
Stu.. 2004

 

[kmcferrin]

Short answer, no.

Browsers are a great application platform for many types of applicatons because of portability, lack of client installation requirements, built-in encrypted client-server communications, and the ability to access the application for many different locations. It many ways web-enabled applications are today's version of the green-screen "roll and scroll" terminal applications of the past.

But it's not going to replace the OS. For starters, the browser has to run in an OS, even if you can run a browser from an EFI-based image. Secondly, the web server has to run in an OS, as does the database backend for the web application (which most of them use). But most importantly, there are certain classes of application that just don't run well in a thin-client environment, like games, image and video editing applications, medical imaging, computational fluid dynamics, large financial simulations, etc.

 

[jsteph]

No,
But I think what will continue to happen is that the OS will continue to be marginalized.

Two years ago, I would have replied "Absolutely never!" to the prospect of buying a Mac.

Now, I'm considering one--at home anyway. Most of what I do on my home pc is internet based or graphics based. I could do what I do on a Mac or Linux and not miss a thing.

With OpenOffice, that trend may continue stronger in the office. As an example, where I work most of our intra-company applications used to be VB, MS Access or Excel based, using SQL-Server as a backend. Now, most of them are intra-net based.

So we are at a point where we could keep MS Windows for servers, but we really don't need Windows on every desktop like we used to. Our 3rd party apps that are Windows-based are largely run with Citrix servers and Wyse terminals, and more and more 3rd party apps are becoming web-based, so again--Windows desktops are less and less a necessity.
--Jim

 

[Sympology]

But thats not true.

In order to run your appas, you most likely have some of the following installed:

Java
Flash
Shockwave
A media player
ActiveX (pos)
Adobe Reader

in fact looking at my browser, I proberbly have 30 or 40 various apps. These all require and OS.

In my job, I need about 20 different apps. OK so my office type apps may go back office, but I run a load of Aduio editing stuff, Packet capture software, system management, real time monitoring and control, non e of which is really suited to the browser.

The other issue you'll have as the OS get thinner, the browser will need to get fatter to cope with more and more junk, slowing it down even more.

Yes there is a lot of room for expansion for the browser, but if you've ever seen the Linux / Novell / Mac / MS war from an unblinkered view, you will see that if you depend on standards, then innovation is killed (have a look on how lomg most standrads take to be approved, your looking at 3-5 years), but if you rely on os dependant kit, you risk alienating a segment of the market.
A bit of software I use daily has a web version and a fat client. Although the web version is useful, it is slow, basic and painful to use compared to the full blown version.

Therefore,I feel, dedicated, powerful software will need an OS to run on. Cross platform, basic software will happily run on something like a browser.

Only the truly stupid believe they know everything.
Stu.. 2004

 

[jsteph]

Stu,
Yes, there will always be apps that you really don't want to compromise on by using a web version, and many simple apps where the browser version makes sense, especially with the rapid, relatively painless deployment/upgrades which the web paradigm provides.

But in my example, I was really referring specifically more to Windows desktops being marginalized because so many things people do are the simple browser type apps, and for me specifically I said I'd consider a Mac because my photoediting apps have mac versions--and the mac versions are usually better in that arena.

And for example, I wouldn't yet want to use Google's Picasa for my photo work, although I could--and there may come a time when that reaches a very useable maturity--but as you suggest--that would likely require an array of plugins, and of course different ones for each OS.

Sometimes I wonder if it wasn't easier when in the C++ compiler you could just point the compiler to Alpha, Win32, or any number of different' OS's.
--Jim

 

[RiverGuy]

Saying the browser is the next OS or will be the delivery medium for most productivity applications implies an internet connection at all times. This is a poor foundation, especially for the general consumer, who has to deal with the unreliability of consumer grade internet access. If my internet was down at home, and I was unable to edit my resume, or listen to music or open up a spreadsheet with my finances, then my computer would be mostly worthless. Besides, HTML is far too limiting when compared to a properly designed application.

 

[kmcferrin]

Sometimes I wonder if it wasn't easier when in the C++ compiler you could just point the compiler to Alpha, Win32, or any number of different' OS's.

Not really. That's why they invented Java (not that that helps much either though).

Saying the browser is the next OS or will be the delivery medium for most productivity applications implies an internet connection at all times. This is a poor foundation, especially for the general consumer, who has to deal with the unreliability of consumer grade internet access. If my internet was down at home, and I was unable to edit my resume, or listen to music or open up a spreadsheet with my finances, then my computer would be mostly worthless. Besides, HTML is far too limiting when compared to a properly designed application.

Not necessarily. I've had cable broadband for the past 10 years or so (three different homes, two different providers), and I can count the number of outages that I've had on one hand. Of course, then there's the possibility of businesses deploying web applications internally.

 

[RiverGuy]

Not necessarily. I've had cable broadband for the past 10 years or so (three different homes, two different providers), and I can count the number of outages that I've had on one hand.

I know what you are saying kmcferrin, but I've had three different cable providers and one DSL provider over the past 7 years. Two of them had very good uptime results whereas the other two had their share of troubles. Not to mention with wireless routers becoming mainstream, users have even more technical support calls and issues for these devices.

 

[jsteph]

Not really. That's why they invented Java (not that that helps much either though).

That was excactly my point about C++.

How much more stable and universal is Java? Not very. We have a couple of enterprise-wide internet based hosted apps that have the java equivalent of .dll hell. It's really not much better in my experience.

Sure, the java idea is a nice utopian idea, but it hasn't been realized.
--Jim

 

[kmcferrin]

Java = nightmare. Because even if it's all Java, if you're using third-party developed Java apps it's about 90% likely that you'll need to have at least 2 different JVMs.

Plus, JIT compilation is a pig compared to pre-compiled code. There's actually a company that sells a medical imaging (digital x-ray) application that I had to work with once that is written entirely in Java. Talk about a dog...

 

[Sympology]

Count 4 versions of Java on my machine :-(
I'm no programmer, but is seems daft I just can't have the latest version and everything before that will run, but it sure as heck doesn't seem that way !

Only the truly stupid believe they know everything.
Stu.. 2004

 

[tcspine]

Is anyone else surprised this thread is being paid attention to?

Now there I go, paying attention to it, but only because I'm surprised it's still here.

 

[03Explorer]

I see someone touched the topic of Microsoft giving way to Google??? Actually prior to office 2007, they were already calling the beta version of (now office 2007) Office Live. If you have been paying attention, Microsoft already is rolling along with a beta version of Office 2007 right under our noses... it's called 'Test Drive Office 2007'. So what they are saying is that you can play around with Office 2007 online prior to 'installing' the local copy? Hmmm... that IS their infant child of what Google is 'Calling' web based office applications.

As for Bill Gates making the statement in 1977... I believe the OS changed. Back then it was all about DOS, not GUI.

The selling point for all the software vendors for having online applications (Office, paint, IRC, etc...) is for rolling out new versions and patches. Everyone will have the same version and in-house support would be in a controlled bubble, fix means everyone is taken care of at the same time. The only issue I see is having a little something for offline work (which they are estimating as a small fraction of user time).

Just my 2cents.

 

[Sympology]

There is a major issue with web based (online) apps.

Take salesforce.com. It's last outage, was not an issue, after all it was in the early hours. Oh hold on, that was the busiest time of the day for Europe.

Systems sometime need downtime, so when it's a Global system, when do you schedule, you're going to pee someone off.
At least with in house stuff, YOU get to say when it goes down.

Only the truly stupid believe they know everything.
Stu.. 2004

 

[kmcferrin]

03Explorer, I'm not sure what you're referring to about Bill Gate's comment in 1977, but if it is in reference to the "640k ought to be enough for anyone" comment you ought to know that he never actually said it.

While we're at it, Al Gore never claimed to have invented the Internet either.

________________________________________
CompTIA A+, Network+, Server+, Security+
MCP, MCSA:Security 2003

 

[AlexCuse]

I'm not sure that j4606 meant an actual operating system, as much as an application delivery platform. I think the web browser as an application delivery platform is making huge strides when it comes to "general purpose" business applications, and I've even considered deploying some internal apps over our intranet so that our mac users can use them too (it is only my lack of *real* asp.net skills that keeps this from happening).

That being said, there is that pesky downtime issue Stu mentioned preventing the globally distributed web based app from *really* taking off.

Anyway, I saw this the other day, and it reminded me of this thread:

http://www.goowy.com/

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[damber]

At least Alex has brought a little rational thought to this.

Firstly, it is blatantly obvious that the "Browser" that we use today has to actually run within an environment that deals with hardware interaction -I don't think it is being suggested otherwise.

Secondly, lets look at the list of proclaimed Application Service Provider(ASP)/Cloud computing issues:

1) Data Protection & Liability - some data is very important, and very few ASPs (Application Service Providers) provide in depth data security and accessibility agreements - if you are audited, then it is likely the ASP will need to be audited as well. Dealing with Healthcare & Finance information across geographical borders, including embargoed countries can be a real concern.

2) Lock-in - how do you easily migrate away from a chosen provider ? How do you take your customers from SalesForce.com to somewhere else ? etc

3) Lack of direct control.. not being able to push the reset button yourself is frustrating. But with most companies using outsourced data centres... surely you rely on someone else anyway ???

4) Availability - to be blunt about it, most people on this site, and most companies would be very happy to have the kind of uptime reliability of the larger internet based ASP's - especially when comparing the costs.

5) Scheduled downtime - for those of us that work for a global company, this issue is there regardless of whether it is an ASP or not. But not being able to determine outage schedules does make it harder to accept. That doesn't mean doing it internally magically makes that issue go away - it is rare to please everyone with downtime scheduling.

6) Lack of Differentiator - some companies want a killer app that sets them apart from the rest... in most cases that's just salesman crap.. most tools can be very very standard, and benefit from being so.

7) Unfamiliar approach - nonsense.. most enterprise apps are built using a web UI these days - even highly graphical applications (e.g. mapping)

8) Limited UI capabilities - the underlying technologies have a long way to go, but.. are you saying that Office Live, Google Maps, Goowy mentioned above and a whole range of other similar tools are significantly worse than desktop applications ?? Compare AutoRoute with Google Maps, or the MS equivalent... I know which I would prefer. For the vast majority of requirements the internet technologies can *already* support as-good UI's as their desktop equivalents. As this forum is about looking into the future.. I would not bet against internet applications...

9) Connection risks - this is a risk, but consider just how many things rely on the internet to work ? you may be able to update your resume on a client machine,.. but how will you post it to your fave jobsite, or email it to your employer? What if you're *not* at home ? how do you access your stuff then ? laptop ? copy/syncing?

10) It's no good for gaming - er.. WoW... Second Life, etc ? Yes, there is local execution of code, but the data / content is delivered to/from the server... sounds just like serving data/content within a web page... the actual rendering happens locally with that too....

11) Can't do offline.. yes you can, it's just that this area is still very immature - e.g Google Gears etc in fact I think 37 signals basecamp online PM tool supports offline working with Adobe AIR. The point is, that this problem is being fixed as the market matures.

... but what about some benefits ?

a) Easy Installation - type url, register, configure.

b) Easy regular maintenance - it is someone else's job (who specialises in this every single day) to ensure it is fed and watered and running efficiently.

c) Latest version and upgrade path - this can be a concern too if you don't trust the ASP to do it sympathetically, however, the smaller incremental updates they make are usually better suited to not breaking the existing user base compared to traditional software releases where companies tend to be several versions behind. (some for good reason, others because they are lazy or cheap).

d) accessible anywhere - don't understimate this, I have had my entire home network of systems/apps/data available online for several years so I can access anything anywhere - although it's kinda the reverse of the cloud computing idea, the reason I do it is the same.. I don't want to be apart from my data or apps just because of my physical location.. I can access all my systems (e.g. remote desktop) and files/music/videos etc from the top of a mountain on my snowboard if I get a reasonable phone signal..

e) there are more but I think you get the picture..

now, back to the subject....

let's not get too bogged down in the hardware abstraction aspects of an OS just yet, the point most people are trying to get across with this concept is the movement of their working environment to the cloud - instead of it all being localised.

Firstly, current browsers are pretty rubbish - they don't fully support the latest standards (none of them do, though we all know the worst offender..), they are memory hogs - especially with the advent of javascript based apps developed by inconsiderate programmers. So don't think that they will be the deciding factor in the cloud computing vision...

Secondly, what this is really talking about is separating the execution and hosting environment (the client) from the software and content delivery environment (the server). In other words, the OS will still be there executing software (hopefully based on standards), but it will be delivered the presentation and behaviour 'software' dynamically as needed by the server on demand and most likely cache it until the server tells it there is a newer version available (hey, that sounds familiar... updates anyone?). It will then interact with the server for data content. This is how the browser works now.. it caches images and stylsheets and js files... even pages sometimes.. and importantly, it all executes locally... so what's so hard to believe about this being extended to all applications, if that model isn't already there conceptually anyway ?

So, the future is not necessarily going to be a browser that does hardware interaction and removes the need for an OS, but it is likely that the OS will become merely a shell for hosting an environment that interacts with internet based services/ASP's - so you could kinda think of that as a browser ;-) This is the best of both worlds - the centralisation of your 'stuff' and 'run anywhere' type availability whilst performance and hw interaction capabilities of local apps. It may seem like this is a hybrid, but actually it is the browser model just extended a little to improve local machine access (of course.. this opens up the biggest can of worms.. security!)

But, what that will need to do is

1) Intelligently manage caching of delivered software and data - this is where you can cache all your favourite songs (or all if you have the space) to a local hard drive for offline use, but still manage them as if they were in the cloud (e.g. syncing etc) - same principle for online apps - even media delivery services that prefetch your favourite shows etc.
2) Browsers will need to evolve considerably to handle the new types of demands on them
3) Developers and Designers will need to improve their understanding of this new model and how to make it work sympathetically with the users needs
4) Data Security issues need to be addressed
5) Service levels need to mature/become explicit
6) Vastly improved security models -currently it is far too restrictive for legitimate developers, and far to easy for hackers to manipulate (especially IE).

As for standards... I understand the gripe that things don't always move fast enough, especially with the W3C etc, but that is not the only factor for innovation... it was at least 1999/2000 when ALL the current tools for doing whizzbang ajaxy applications was available (I built my first in 2000/2001) - but why was it not until 2005/2006 before the current generation of web apps really started to emerge ? Imagination and technology user maturity play a big factor.

Thing is, the current technology will reach it's limit soon (if it hasn't already in places), so it isn't really good enough for the future vision.. therefore we need to continually demand better standards from those that represent us on standards boards and ensure that we *all* use them to re-enforce the need to continually maintain and improve them in a focused and consistent manner. (for the web developers amongst you: how much easier would it be if all the web browsers behaved the same?! ;-) )

Finally, sometimes the problems we face each day and the repeated imprinting of the status quo make it hard for us to see how tomorrow might bring us something different that might work better, but this forum is supposed to be about looking off into the distance, not down at our feet, so take some time and give this concept a chance - we're actually further towards this than a lot of people think, it's just a case of needing that head slap moment where it all seems so obvious. It's also important to delineate consumer and corporation - businesses will take much longer than consumers to move to this model.

I wonder if any of you actually read all that!



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